Looking back on the A-share market in the week before the festival, with the stimulation of adverse factors at home and abroad, the overall market showed a trend of shock bottoming. The Shanghai index gradually fell below the integer mark of 3000 and 2900 points. Then, on Wednesday and Thursday, the market gradually fluctuated and rebounded. It is worth mentioning that the market opened higher and fluctuated higher on Friday. Taking on the inertia of the previous day's rise, the Shanghai index lost 3000 points and recovered.
As Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) mentioned, considering that the 3000 point integer pass belongs to the intensive trading area, if the stock index continues to rise in the future, the trading volume of the two markets will need to continue to rise to the recent daily average of more than 800 billion yuan. If the trading volume shrinks again to close to the daily average trading volume, the short-term stock index is expected to be volatile . We suggest that investors focus on investment opportunities in new energy, engineering construction, semiconductor and Internet services in the short term, and continue to focus on investment opportunities in undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that on the last trading day before the festival, the three major indexes recovered in an all-round way. The Shanghai index returned above 3000 points and closed three consecutive positive, reversing the recent weak pattern, restoring market confidence and generally warming individual stock sectors. In particular, the release of positive signals from the policy side is conducive to the steady operation of the economy and capital market. With the continuation of follow-up policies, it is expected that the market will usher in the trend of shock repair, pay attention to the periphery of the holiday and the trend of the Federal Reserve . It is suggested to be moderately positive in operation, and pay attention to finance, real estate, building materials, household appliances, food and beverage, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Kaiyuan securities mentioned that 5 may rebound is expected, but the reversal has not yet reached, leaving aside the bottom, we still need to be cautious; If there is a reversal market, based on our style framework, the main line of A-Shares is expected to switch to growth . In May, it is suggested that 60% of the attack growth and 40% of the defense value. Specific allocation of growth attribute cycle, post epidemic cycle and mandatory consumption.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) pointed out that A shares are ready to rebound in May . 1) Decompression of epidemic situation in some areas; 2) The policy has six marginal changes compared with March; 3) The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on May 5. In the second half of the year, A-Shares are expected to repair the trend of low slope: the performance of A-Shares in the interim report is expected to reach the bottom, and the third quarterly report and annual report may rise quarter by quarter. Q4 can game the marginal change of Fed policy. In terms of configuration, focus on the midstream manufacturing that is pointed to by the three logics of current financial report change + high certainty of long-term demand + long-term capital increase.
Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) mentioned that rebound does not necessarily reverse, half attack and half defense, and be patient for . (1) Defensive allocation: we still insist on the affirmation of the main line of steady growth. The certainty and strength of the steady growth policy will increase after the impact of the epidemic. At the same time, the banking industry in the financial sector highlights the defensive attribute in the volatile market, has a high safety margin, and has a bright performance in the recent annual report and the first quarter report, so we recommend it.
(2) attack choice: according to the repair clues of risk preference, on the one hand, pay attention to the short-term oversold rebound opportunities of companies with good performance support in various sectors, on the other hand, observe and layout the market of consumption and growth sectors with the strongest trend after market reversal in the future; Considering the certainty of supply-demand mismatch, some resources, raw materials and transportation sectors, such as coking coal, shipping ports, etc.
In addition, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that the dawn of has appeared, and it is recommended to allocate both offensive and defensive . The risk of rising commodity prices caused by supply shocks caused by peripheral geopolitical conflicts can not be ignored. Although the external risk disturbance is still there, we should return our focus to China's steady growth. Although the epidemic has disturbed China's economic development, the tone of China's steady growth will continue to work on the policy side, and investors' concerns will return to China's fundamentals. The dawn has come. We need to wait patiently for the policy to work, and investors' expectations and confidence are restored. We suggest that the allocation strategy is to find high-quality targets with both attack and defense under the two main lines of steady growth and high prosperity.
However, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said, although there are still many uncertainties inside and outside, the market already has the value of the middle line, so there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future market . Structurally, the undervalued "steady growth" field still has a certain allocation value. Pay comprehensive attention to the trend of overseas inflation, China's "steady expectation" measures and the progress of epidemic prevention and control to judge whether the relevant growth sectors have entered the inflection point of repair.
In terms of industry allocation, the agency further suggested that the main line of steady growth still has stage allocation value, pay attention to the growth style according to the progress of global inflation situation . 1) In the "bottom grinding" stage of the market, the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, stable demand for real estate and related industrial chains (real estate, building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.);
2) for the consumption in the middle and lower reaches with many adjustments in the early stage, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc;
3) risks in the manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been released, but the turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of "stagflation" risk, global liquidity and market sentiment.
In the macro aspect, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that the heavyweight meeting has clearly set the tone for the current situation, fully released the signal of stability, and further clarified the policy direction, strength and implementation follow up policies are reflected in the order of intensity: epidemic prevention, logistics protection, infrastructure promotion, loose real estate and consumption promotion . The policy signal has released enough space, and the first step to regain confidence has been taken. In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to the policy response speed and landing effect.
In terms of operation strategy, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) suggest focus on three main lines . Main line 1: steady growth chain is still one of the main allocation directions. Especially after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee adheres to the annual economic growth and eliminates the concerns of steady growth policy, we can pay attention to building materials, building decoration, steel, cement, water conservancy and hydropower construction, real estate chain (there are still opportunities for the leaders of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises to improve their concentration) and banks.
Main line 2: if the yield of U.S. bonds falls after peaking periodically, the growth sector will usher in the opportunity of oversold rebound, focusing on power equipment, electronics, military industry, media, communications, computers, etc.
Main line 3: consumer goods must be selected. The transmission of PPI to CPI is accelerated. Under the situation of epidemic prevention and control, the reserve of consumer goods must be selected is increased. Attention is paid to food processing, meat products, dairy products, condiments, grain, oil, rice noodles, small household appliances and other subdivided fields.
For may, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that from the perspective of allocation direction, under the background of certain pressure on the overall performance of a shares, it is recommended to pay attention to the relatively high boom direction, including two main lines of steady growth and consumption .
Main line 1: steady growth direction. Under the background of steady growth and fiscal power, the direction of steady growth may be one of the most important main lines of the capital market. In the previous upward range of fixed asset investment growth in history, the relevant sectors of "steady growth" performed prominently. It is suggested to pay attention to the construction, building materials, banking, real estate and other industries in the traditional infrastructure direction, as well as the wind power, photovoltaic and other industries in the new infrastructure direction.
Main line 2: consumption direction. Historically, the consumer sector has performed well during the period when the inflation scissors have narrowed significantly. At the same time, the comparative advantage of the 22-year performance of the consumer sector may be more obvious. Suggestions: 1) high certainty Baijiu and medicine. 2) Household appliances and mass consumer goods benefiting from the subsidy policy. 3) Offline consumer industries benefiting from the decline of the epidemic include aviation, airport, tourism and other industries.
