Looking back on the A-share market last week, the weak shock continued, the stock game characteristics remained, and the market investment was cautious. Especially last Friday, the whole day index performed poorly. It basically operated below the green disk in the morning. Although it once turned red in the afternoon, it fell back and went down again. At the end of the day, it even ushered in a wave of small diving, with a panoramic view of the weak pattern.
As Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) mentioned, OTC funds have a heavy wait-and-see mentality, and the market continues to show the structural market characteristics of stock game . At present, the stock index fluctuates around the contraction of 3200 points. Whether it can break the trading situation and reproduce the rising trend in the future still needs strong policy boost. At the same time, the continuous promotion of leading hot spots is still essential. It is suggested that investors should watch more and move less, and patiently wait for the emergence of the time point of changing the market. It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight shock of the gem is more likely. We suggest investors to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Technically, Dongguan securities mentioned that the index fell slightly last Friday, and the trend is still repeated. However, with the gradual implementation of moderately loose policies, it is expected that the market is expected to shake and repair, and pay attention to the landing strength of RRR reduction and the change of volume energy . In operation, it is suggested to focus on the layout of the middle line, and pay attention to finance, food and beverage, electrical equipment, steel, coal and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Guosheng Securities believes that with the gradual reduction of the impact of the peripheral geopolitical situation and the implementation of the expected reduction of reserve requirements, the short-term market may continue to maintain the rhythm of shock consolidation . From the market performance since this year, the impact of the market on monetary policy is gradually fading. For example, after the MLF interest rate cut in January and the social finance exceeded the expectation in March, the market did not rise, It is judged that short-term monetary policy is not the decisive factor affecting the market . What is more related to liquidity is the valuation of growth stocks, so the restraint of monetary policy may continue to suppress the valuation of growth stocks.
The agency further analyzed that at present, what the A-share market lacks is popularity and confidence, waiting for the further coverage of the policy. The change node may be , in terms of operation, pay attention to the low absorption opportunities of automobile industry chain, integrated circuit, equipment manufacturing and other topics under the expectation of resumption of production and work, and the investment and consumption links under the demand of “internal circulation” are also worthy of attention. Among them, large state-owned enterprises have certain advantages.
AVIC Securities pointed out that considering that the current economic recovery is disturbed by the epidemic, more stable growth policies need to be introduced and effective in the rebound. Therefore, “steady growth” will still be the main logic driving the operation of the market. It is suggested to pay attention to the bank real estate chain, new and old infrastructure chain, mass consumption and other sectors .
In addition, considering the impact of external conflicts and the structural imbalance between supply and demand of bulk commodities, we expect that upstream cycle varieties will still be attractive in the short term. In the short term, the rise of US bond yields will continue to suppress the growth style of a shares. However, in the medium and long term, growth still has allocation value growth style, the manufacturing industry will be the main force of the future market . It is suggested to lay out high-end manufacturing industry and new energy photovoltaic semiconductor field.
In the macro aspect, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that although the social finance exceeded expectations in March after the release of import and export, CPI and financial data, the continuous spread of the epidemic and the upgrading of control since April led to the short-term obstruction of freight logistics, further affecting the confidence of the supply chain and the market in the subsequent economic recovery for supply chain problems, various ministries and commissions have successively issued relevant support policies, which may be gradually restored from this week, but it still needs to be fully returned to normal. It is expected that the drag on the economy may continue until the end of April .
In addition, the national Standing Committee mentioned that the use of the RRR tool was implemented as scheduled last Friday. At the same time, with the reduction of the encouraged deposit interest rate, the subsequent LPR interest rate in April or may may may be adjusted to make profits for the real economy. Overseas, the inflation growth rate in the US has basically peaked, but the extreme tightening of the Federal Reserve continues. It is expected that the contraction may be announced in May; The expectation of the European Central Bank to raise interest rates is slightly pre cooled. The path of the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in the future still depends on economic data. this year, the rhythm of monetary policies of major countries in the world is obviously divided, which will become a potential risk to the market .
In terms of operational strategy, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that on the premise that the global market risk factors such as geographical turmoil and foreign capital flows have not been eliminated, current position does not recommend blindly chasing high, but to bargain hunting layout or grasp the “falling opportunity” . Throughout the year, holding high score red and blue chips, bargain hunting for epidemic diseases (vaccines, special drugs, etc.) and stable growth (high score red central enterprises) are still the main line of adjusting the layout every year; The current position does not recommend blindly chasing high, but to bargain hunting layout or grasp the “opportunity to fall”.
Throughout the year, holds high score red and blue chips and buys epidemic diseases on bargain hunting, such as specific drugs and vaccines; And steady growth, such as central enterprise real estate and green power, are still the main line of adjusting the layout ; For absolute excess return investors: 1) must choose consumption, food and other epidemic spread + anti inflation or performance opportunities; 2) After the RRR reduction, China’s loose monetary policy pattern is expected to continue. Under the background of accelerated domestic substitution, we can adjust the layout of small and medium-sized market value growth stocks, especially the comprehensive domestic substitution segmentation of semiconductor materials, aeroengines and blood products. After the market adjustment, with the landing of China’s interest rate and standard reduction, small and medium-sized market capitalization growth stocks may have the opportunity to rotate.
Dongguan Securities believes that for the stock market, the release of the RRR reduction signal will help to improve the market risk appetite. The market is expected to gradually repair the shock and open the medium and long-term layout. From the perspective of industry sectors, RRR reduction will benefit the sectors with capital sensitivity, bulk commodities, high score red high dividend blue chip and strong financing demand .
Specifically, capital sensitive industries include banking, real estate and securities companies. The incremental funds released by the RRR reduction will expand the business demand of these sectors . With the improvement of inter-bank liquidity, the return on investment of private loans and other capital loans will fall, and the holding value of blue chips that can always maintain a high dividend ratio will be highlighted, such as leading enterprises in food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and other industries. Finally, for industries with strong financing demand, the RRR reduction means that enterprises’ ability to obtain funds is enhanced and the financing cost is reduced. Therefore, the RRR reduction benefits industries with tight capital chain and large financing cash flow, such as new energy industry, power equipment, TMT industry, etc.
YueKai Securities pointed out that under the influence of the approaching policy underpinning meeting, the A-share probability continues the shock repair trend, and the market is dominated by structural market. It is suggested to focus on three main lines first, focus on the main line of steady growth driven by policies . Internal and external disturbances have increased the downward pressure on the economy. As the main policy line, steady growth will still be the main market in the long run. It is suggested to pay attention to the new and old infrastructure that directly benefit from the second reverse cycle adjustment and the targets with outstanding performance and low valuation in the real estate sector.
second, focus on the main line of large consumption . In terms of policies, the NSC will deploy policies and measures to promote consumption and comprehensively implement policies to release consumption potential; In terms of capital, the recent recovery in the issuance of public funds with consumption theme is expected to bring incremental capital into the market; At the company level, after the cost side pressure of leading companies is gradually relieved, it is expected to enjoy the dividend of profit elasticity repair in the medium and long term.
third, focus on the large financial sector with favorable RRR reduction policy . The RRR reduction helps to optimize the capital structure of financial institutions. For the banking sector, the RRR reduction helps to slow down the cost of bank liabilities, support the performance, and pay attention to the undervalued core stocks with high asset quality. For the securities sector, the loose liquidity environment helps to boost the market risk appetite, and the low-level securities sector is expected to usher in the valuation repair market.
