Looking back on Monday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, followed by a gradual shock recovery. The gem index took the lead in turning red, and the Shenzhen composite index also ushered in a red market, while the Shanghai index has always maintained its green position. Under the differentiation of the index, subject stocks strengthened slightly, and blue chips fell.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the current market is at the bottom stage, the trading volume has shrunk, China’s epidemic prevention and control is still severe, there is no obvious inflection point in the international geographical conflict, and the market sentiment has not recovered significantly. In terms of operation, investors can still keep low positions or empty positions to wait and see, and then choose the opportunity to intervene .
From a technical point of view, Guosheng Securities believes that the current stock index is subject to the suppression of the 20th line, and the form is still a shock and bottom grinding trend. After the gem index continued to decline, it was stronger than the Shanghai index for the first time in the near future. The seesaw effect of the two indexes reappeared. initially showed signs of oversold and extremely low value tuyere and transferred to the growth tuyere dominated by gem and Kechuang 50. Before it is clear, it is suggested to give priority to balanced allocation as a whole .
The agency further analyzed the following aspects of future concerns: first, the planting sector under the international “food crisis” can be concerned; Second, in the first quarter, many enterprises in the semiconductor industry predicted that the revenue increased by more than 50% year-on-year, while the semiconductor fell sharply in the early stage, and there may be poor expectations in the future. However, the seesaw effect on April 18 and the reversal outlet of traditional oversold have preliminary signs of transferring to the growth outlet, or strengthen the expected difference .
In terms of the future market, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that the conversion of leading hot spots is still relatively frequent, and the market lacks obvious profit-making effect, investors are in a heavy mood to wait and see with money, and it still needs external force to break the market situation in the future . It is expected that the short-term slight shock of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight consolidation of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to pay careful attention to the investment opportunities in semiconductor, photovoltaic and automobile industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that at present, the negative factors at home and abroad have not been completely cleared, the market mood is low, and the repair will take time. In this process, it is vulnerable to periodic impact and continues to “grind the bottom”. In this regard, we maintain our previous judgment that at this stage, it is recommended to focus on large cap value stocks with better defense ability and valuation repair space. At the same time, the boom inflection point and allocation value of the concept of post epidemic recovery are becoming increasingly prominent , so it is recommended to continue to pay attention and intervene in time.
In the macro aspect, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that GDP in the first quarter of 2022 increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly weaker than the level in the third quarter of 2021. The data reflect the downward pressure on economic growth. The structural characteristics deserve more attention: 1) in the production end, the marginal of service industry becomes weaker, but the industry remains resilient as a whole; 2) On the demand side, infrastructure investment accelerated upward, other demand variables were impacted to varying degrees, and the consumption pressure was highlighted. It should be noted that due to the relatively small proportion of GDP, fixed asset investment and other indicators in the first quarter of the year, subsequent steady growth still has time and space. With the further development of policies, the economy is expected to repair .
In terms of operational strategy, Huafu Securities pointed out that with the market callback gradually in place and the policy bottom revealed, the valuation of growth stocks has been gradually reasonable after deep callback . The manufacturing leaders damaged in the prevention and control of the epidemic include new energy, semiconductors, auto parts and other fields. With the gradual establishment of reasonable epidemic prevention and control measures, the follow-up industrial chain is repaired, the performance is gradually released, and the growth is shown. At the same time, the valuation level is low, which is very noteworthy.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) indicates that under the current uncertain environment, on the one hand, the position is controlled; On the other hand, in terms of allocation, it is suggested to find a direction with “relative certainty”, which can be properly paid attention to: 1) “steady growth” related sectors have continued to have relative performance since December last year. Combined with the current policy development period, we believe that the phased relative performance in related fields will continue for some time ;
At the same time, the focus of the company’s annual report may be better than the expected growth of the first quarter of the year, and the annual report of the company may be better than that of the first quarter of the year;
3) with the recent decline in asset prices, the scale of net reduction of A-share shareholders’ senior executives has dropped significantly. Statistics show that there have been 350 holdings increase announcements since March, with a total amount of 10.3 billion yuan. It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises with recent holdings of shareholders’ senior executives and good fundamentals. For the manufacturing growth style with high market attention, we believe that although there may be a lack of catalytic factors in the short term, some high-quality companies have experienced more early adjustments, and the long-term configuration value gradually appears .
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) mentioned that the landing of RRR reduction in April released the signal that “steady growth” continued to increase, and the follow-up focus was on the implementation of policies in key areas and the recovery of Fundamentals: first, both epidemic prevention and control and logistics support are expected to promote the resumption of work and production of enterprises; Second, in terms of consumption, consumption promotion policies such as consumption vouchers may be introduced one after another; Third, China’s monetary policy still has room for independence, credit relief still needs to be increased, and the one-year and five-year LPR may be reduced . In terms of style, dividend strategy and stable growth value, blue chip still wins.
