Looking back on Thursday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen main board index rebounded, while the gem index was slightly inferior, and the differentiation pattern was more prominent. The three major indexes opened higher in the morning. Although there was a certain decline in the morning, the two main board indexes fluctuated on the water all day, worked upward again in the afternoon, and finally closed in the red market; The gem index experienced twists and turns, diving once in the session, showing a wide shock trend as a whole, and finally closed down slightly.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the stock index rebounded on Thursday, but the rebound strength was insufficient, and more than 1300 stocks still fell, indicating that the cautious mood of on-site funds is still heavy and the willingness of off-site funds to enter the market is not strong the probability of maintaining the bottom of the follow-up market is high, and investors should be careful not to catch up . The gem index hit a new low in the session, and the deviation signal at the end of the short term is expected to appear, so the gem index can rebound appropriately.
Technically speaking, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that this week's national standing committee will release positive signals, and good news including RRR reduction will follow . On Thursday, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high in the morning, and mainstream industries such as brewing, real estate, automobile and cycle rose in turn, boosting the stock index to rise steadily. The stock index touched the area near 3240 points in the intraday, and the stock index showed the operation characteristics of unilateral shock rise throughout the day. The trading volume of the two cities is 870 billion yuan, and the characteristics of the stock game remain the same.
The agency further analyzed that thanks to the continuous lifting of heavyweights, the Shanghai index recently showed a stabilization signal near 3140, but the trading volume of and two cities has not been effectively amplified. It is suggested that investors continue to pay attention to the changes in policy and capital . It is expected that the short-term slight shock of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight consolidation of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
In terms of the future market, Dongguan securities mentioned that the release of RRR reduction signal will help to improve the market risk appetite. It is expected that the market will continue to shake and repair, pay attention to the landing strength of RRR reduction and the change of volume energy. In operation, it is suggested to focus on the midline layout , and pay attention to finance, real estate, food and beverage, electrical equipment, steel, coal and other industries.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the RRR reduction will be realized soon, and the market will gradually return to normal, focusing on the medium and long-term layout. Recently, after the adjustment of the market, the valuation of major stock indexes has returned to a reasonable level below the median. Although the economic operation in the second quarter was still dragged down by the repeated epidemic and overseas interest rate hikes in the short term, the policy rescue and maintaining the stability of the economy are on the way, and the currency hedging is about to be realized. in the future, the market will gradually return to normal, and the investment strategy should focus on "defensive counterattack" .
Aijian Securities believes that geographical conflicts are repeated, the epidemic is still under control, and medium-term and short-term uncertainties still exist, but the development trend is better . The market environment is basically stable and good, so it is not suitable to be pessimistic. Of course, uncertainties still exist, so the market mentality is still cautious, and the shock recovery will be the main rhythm. In this position, it is not sad or happy. It is more about participating in market transactions, paying attention to the adjustment risk of high-level theme sectors, and paying attention to the sectors with low-level signs of starting.
In the macro aspect, Guosheng Securities pointed out that with the gradual easing of the international geopolitical situation and the expected landing of the Fed's interest rate hike, the main contradiction affecting the market trend in the short term has shifted from external disturbance to the point outbreak of the epidemic in China. Before the epidemic can not be effectively controlled, consumption, manufacturing and other related industries may continue to be affected. However, as China's policy side will continue to maintain the stability of monetary policy and the easing of macro-control, multiple benefits will be introduced successively in the future or lead the market out of the decline .
In terms of operational strategy, the agency further analyzed that the short-term market risk appetite is still low, and continued to focus on the relevant steady growth sectors such as the real estate industry chain and banks benefiting from loose monetary policy, as well as the coal, non-ferrous metals and other related sectors whose annual report and first quarter report exceeded expectations; In the medium term, we can pay attention to the consumption, tourism and other related industries that have priority to be repaired after the elimination of the epidemic disturbance, as well as the growth tracks such as photovoltaic, semiconductor and new energy that are expected to be repaired after the recovery of market risk appetite from the perspective of time, we can gradually focus on steady growth, consumption recovery and manufacturing boom .
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) pointed out that new and old steady growth areas have a horizontal comparison of transaction heat . 1) In the absence of mainline logic, the cycle of market style switching may be shortened short term market transactions or indicate the direction of subsequent differentiation ;
2) the buying behavior of domestic and foreign capital in the banking and real estate industry is relatively consistent, and the market is still continuous . There are great differences between domestic and foreign capital in the growth track: foreign capital has a high recognition of power innovation, and domestic capital has a relatively obvious preference for medical care;
3) in terms of transaction heat, the heat of Bank + real estate chain + medical care is high , and the heat of other growth tracks is at a medium and low level. At present, the transaction heat of Bank + real estate chain is at a historically high level, and the subsequent "steady growth" needs to be gradually implemented, so as to catalyze the further market; The heat of healthcare transactions fell, but remained high.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) said that looking ahead to the two quarter, we need to take account of the long-term factors of the development logic of the sector and the short-term factors of the marginal improvement of the epidemic. From the current valuation level and long-term logic, the high quality raceway Baijiu is still the preferred for investment. From the short-term logic of the epidemic factors, after the improvement of the epidemic situation, the catering, beer and regional liquor gradually recovered in sequence, and the lower 2021Q2 sectors had meat products. Beer, condiment, food and 2022Q2 performance forecast will also affect expectations. However, the outlook for performance is uncertain. It is still recommended to set up a high-quality track leader from the perspective of long-term investment. At the same time, the marginal changes of restaurants, beer and regional Baijiu sectors will be focused on after the improvement of the consumer situation.
