Looking back on Thursday’s A-share market, there was a rest in the market. The three major indexes opened low in the morning. The Shanghai index rebounded upward at the beginning of the session and turned red smoothly, but the rebound strength was limited. Then the three major stock indexes dived and weakened, and finally the Shanghai index barely turned red and closed up slightly. However, the Shenzhen composite index showed weak performance, unfortunately closed down, and the trend of the gem index was more tragic.
As stated by Guosheng securities, short-term disturbance factors that restrict the upward movement of A-Shares gradually subside, and may be established at the bottom of the left side or here. In terms of operation, the short-term market risk appetite has increased. Only from the transaction level, we can pay attention to track stocks with oversold rebound demand, such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, military industry and other related sectors, but the reversal will take time. Pay attention to the rhythm.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities believes that the three indexes have different ups and downs. The Shanghai index has been positive for two consecutive days, touching the 5-day moving average, and the performance of the gem is weak. There is a slight net outflow of funds from the north, and the volume of the two cities can fall significantly. However, with the recent increase of policy strength, the market selling pressure tends to ease gradually. It is expected that the market will usher in the trend of gradual repair in the repeated shocks, and pay attention to the northward capital flow and the change of capacity . Operationally, it is suggested to focus on the layout of the middle line, and pay attention to finance, real estate, building materials, steel, household appliances, food and beverage, electrical equipment and other industries.
As for the future market, Xiangcai Securities said that the capital game is still going on, and investors need more patience . As long as your stock is not a variety that has been seriously fried in the past, you don’t have to worry too much at present, the market has entered a sensitive period. Both the point and time belong to a relatively sensitive cycle. After the short-term index continues to fluctuate, the market is expected to gradually usher in a band rebound after the festival . Due to the inherent high elasticity of the gem, it is more likely to become the main force of the rebound in the future. We will wait and see.
In addition, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, pointed out that recent favorable policies have been frequent, ranging from promoting consumption, infrastructure construction and reducing reserve requirements to reducing stock transaction transfer fees, which released the management’s caring attitude towards the capital market, helped restore market confidence and promote the rebound of the market . It is very important to maintain a good attitude at the bottom of the market, adhere to value investment and grasp the most beneficial direction of economic transformation. Through the stock market downturn, everything will be all right. Cherish the opportunity to build good stocks and funds under 3000. In the long run, value investment will only lose time, not money.
Ping An securities mentioned that whenever long-term problems are intertwined with short-term shocks, the market will always show an excessively pessimistic state , but from the perspective of the current market adjustment range, valuation level and the profitability of listed companies, we believe that the market risk in 2022 is small. Among the sectors with the largest adjustment range since the end of 2021, there are also some overshoot sectors with upward medium and long-term prosperity; From the perspective of expected return, the cost performance of the current A-share market is much higher than that at the end of 2021. The stock bond return ratio of CSI 300 and gem is more than 90%. Therefore, we are optimistic that this pessimistic expectation will gradually fade with the easing of uncertainty.
In terms of operational strategy, the institution further analyzed that under many uncertainties, the capital market should look for areas of relative certainty as the focus of layout . Under the tone of increasing internal circulation, the policy focus will be on expanding China’s investment and consumption. It is certain to increase infrastructure investment in 2022. Stimulus policies in the field of consumption are likely to be issued after the epidemic. New energy, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, biomedicine and other industries still have long-term strategic value; Secondly, in the context of the sluggish global supply chain, energy security and food security have been raised to a more important position. In the future, energy and resource product security is also the main line that the market needs to pay attention to; In addition, the regulation of the policy on the platform economy has eased marginally, and the adjustment of leading Internet enterprises has come to an end.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that it is suggested that expand from the logic of oversold growth and post epidemic supply chain recovery . From the medium-term perspective, continues to pay attention to the certainty of three certainty premiums : 1) the certainty of steady growth policy under “triple pressure” (high-quality private enterprises + state-owned enterprise developers, local & high growth buildings, high-quality small and medium-sized banks); 2) Dilemma reversal and certainty of long-term performance improvement (breeding, tax exemption, hotel); 3) Determination of supply and demand of coking coal in medium and short-term shipping; In terms of stock selection logic, continue to recommend the strategy of “dividend + expected improvement” and the strategy of “double low + dilemma reversal”. From a longer-term perspective, with the expected improvement of entities, employment protection and consumption promotion, we can pay attention to the strategic allocation opportunities of consumer stocks in the later part of the second quarter, focusing on mass consumer goods, leisure food, duty-free and hotels.
In addition, Debang securities mentioned that the dawn of is beginning to appear, and the Quartet , under the impact of the epidemic, is under repair. a. Recovery of consumption after the epidemic: 1) household consumption; 2) Scene consumption; b. Self controlled long-term track: 1) wind power & Photovoltaic & nuclear power; 2) Semiconductor equipment and materials; 3) Military industry; c. Policy driven steady growth: 1) construction; 2) Consumption of building materials; 3) Real estate development; d. Strategic resources: 1) food security; 2) Energy security; 3) Metal resources.
