Key investment points:
Today, all major indexes in the market fell to a large extent, among which the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.58% and the gem fell 2.67%; The CSI 500 fell even more, down 3.37%. In terms of transaction volume, the two cities traded 0.94 trillion yuan throughout the day, an increase of 72.7 billion yuan over the previous trading day. In terms of funds going north, the net outflow throughout the day was 3.574 billion yuan. In terms of industries, shenwanyi industries fell to varying degrees, with the media, coal, computer and communication industries leading the decline, all exceeding 4.0%, followed by architectural decoration, environmental protection, steel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries.
The main reason for today’s decline in the A-share market came from the turmoil in overseas markets. The tension in Russia and Ukraine triggered a sharp decline in European stocks and turmoil in US stocks, and triggered panic in the Asia Pacific market. The rise of peripheral geopolitical risks is accelerating the rise of risk aversion, which has an impact on the global equity market. Although A-Shares have been showing the trend of foreign capital inflow in the early stage, they are still spared under the background of the overall warming of risk aversion, and the funds going north are also showing an outflow today.
At present, the impact of this round of peripheral market turmoil on A-Shares is more emotional and will not interfere with the fundamental expectations of a shares. Therefore, we judge that the impact is more temporary, and investors need not worry too much about it. In the next two days, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting. We expect that whether the interest rate is increased in advance or not, the market has expected the tightening of overseas liquidity. The convening of this meeting will make the market’s expectation of the path of interest rate increase more clear, and the meeting may become an important time point for the market to land its boots. Considering that A-Shares have fallen back to the bottom area, we believe that the cost performance of A-Shares has been significantly improved. It is suggested that investors consider increasing the allocation against the trend in time.
In terms of allocation, under the “wide credit” cycle, the consumption and infrastructure sectors are expected to obtain excess returns. For the latter, we should pay attention to the rhythm. At present, it is in the expected fulfillment stage of the policy after the current round of “wide credit”, and the layout can still be arranged if it is corrected; At the same time, we can also pay attention to the valuation and repair market of the real estate sector. Specifically, we can pay attention to: (1) consumption: household appliances, food and beverage, leisure services; (2) Infrastructure and real estate chain: building materials and real estate; (3) Large financial sector.
Risk tip: the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, and the policy promotion is less than expected.
