Event:
Today, the market rose sharply, and the indexes generally rose by more than 1%. The Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3100 points. At the industry level, coal, beauty care and food and beverage led the rise.
Key investment points:
There are three main reasons for the sharp rise in the market today. First, the steady growth policy has been significantly strengthened. The prime minister held a symposium on stabilizing growth and stabilizing market players to ensure employment, and proposed that “tap the potential of policies, make sure that new measures that are accurate can be used up, and make every effort in May to ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range in the first half of the year and the whole year, and strive to make the economy return to normal track faster”. This morning, the five-year LPR cut interest rates by 15bp, exceeding market expectations; Second, with the accelerated implementation of the steady growth policy, investors’ expectations of China’s economy have gradually improved. The offshore RMB exchange rate has appreciated significantly for two consecutive days, and foreign capital has poured in more than 10 billion today; Third, the epidemic situation in China continues to show signs of improvement. Among them, the social aspects in Shanghai and Beijing have been cleared, the number of confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections has continued to decline, and the resumption of work and production has been steadily promoted.
Pessimistic economic expectations are gradually restored, and the market has structural opportunities. According to our may report, the market has entered a promising stage. From the perspective of market interpretation, the policy signal released after the Politburo meeting is positive, the national epidemic situation has changed at an inflection point, and the market rebound will continue. The strengthening of the steady growth policy at the bottom grinding stage helps to repair the pessimistic economic expectations. Referring to the strengthening of the steady growth policy in 2012, 2016 and 2020 and the process of market interpretation, the reversal of the pessimistic economic expectations is not achieved overnight, but the strengthening of the policy provides a good start. The follow-up will gradually verify the improvement of the high-frequency economic data. The slope of economic recovery determines whether the follow-up market can continue to rebound and rise, Considering that the valuation quantile of major indexes is in a relatively cheap position, the overseas disturbance factors are gradually weakened, the market has structural opportunities, and the market is still in a relatively feasible stage since this year.
Continue to be optimistic about consumption, focusing on three segments. First, food and beverage, catering and tourism, hotels, automobiles, household appliances and other industries that have been fully adjusted and benefited from the marginal improvement of the epidemic situation; Second, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery benefiting from the rise in product prices and inflation; Third, pharmaceutical and biological products with low valuation.
Risk tips: the situation in Russia and Ukraine worsened again, Sino US relations deteriorated, US monetary policy tightened more than expected, the epidemic in China spread sharply, and the external market fell sharply.
