Comments on key news of the week: overseas market turmoil, A-Shares rose against the trend
Powell reiterated the hawkish view that he was worried about the spread of austerity expectations to economic recession and the continuous adjustment of overseas markets, while A-Shares rose against the trend under the support of various positive factors: from a fundamental point of view, the bad credit and economy landed in April, and Shanghai achieved zero social aspects; In terms of policy, the prime minister said twice in the week that there was steady growth, the lower limit of the first mortgage interest rate was adjusted, and the five-year LPR was reduced by 15bp; The recovery of the RMB exchange rate was also boosted.
Macro highlights: 1. The lower limit of commercial loan interest rate for the first set of individual housing was lowered by 20 basis points; 2. The economic data in April was significantly weaker; 3. Powell reiterated his support for raising interest rates by 50 basis points in each of the next two meetings; 4. The prime minister said twice in a week that steady growth would be achieved; 5. The 5-year LPR was reduced by 15bp, exceeding market expectations.
Resumption of A-share market: A-share rose, dominated by midstream manufacturing and upstream resources
Index and style: Kechuang 50 and CSI 1000 led the increase, with weekly increases and decreases of 3.42% and 3.16% respectively. From the perspective of individual stock new highs, the proportion of individual stocks with stock prices reaching new highs of 60 and 250 days rebounded slightly month on month. From the absolute performance of style, midstream manufacturing and upstream resources, mid cap, high P / E ratio and low profit stocks are dominant.
Industry performance: most of them rose, with coal, power equipment and non-ferrous metals leading the rise. From the perspective of individual stock highs, the proportion of 60 day high individual stocks in coal, commercial retail and beauty care industries is high.
Leading index: in the past 20 days, Kechuang 50 dominated, with cars, household appliances and household appliances among the top performers.
Valuation tracking: the valuation of A-Shares rebounded, and the degree of valuation differentiation in the industry remained stable.
Overseas market review: most of the global stock markets rose, and the performance of A-Shares was above medium
Most of the world’s major stock indexes rose, with Vietnam stock exchange, Hong Kong Hang Seng and Mumbai, India 30 relatively dominant.
US stock market: the index fell in an all-round way, most industries fell, energy, health care and public utilities led the rise, and the value and market style were relatively dominant. The overall valuation of the index is down, and the overall valuation of the industry is down.
Hong Kong Stock Market: the industry rose in an all-round way, with industry, raw material industry and medical care industry leading the increase. The valuation of the index is comprehensively upward, and most of the industry valuations are upward.
Performance of major categories of assets: RMB appreciation, China’s risk appetite rebounded
Global markets fell this week, with emerging markets dominating. Commodity prices generally rose, and industrial metals, copper, gold and crude oil all rose. In terms of interest rate bonds, the short-term interest rate of US bonds rebounded and the long-term interest rate fell; In terms of credit bonds, China’s 3-year medium-term note credit spread expanded and 5-year note narrowed; In terms of convertible bonds, the convertible bond index rose. In terms of exchange rate, the US dollar index fell and the RMB and euro appreciated. In terms of volatility, the VIX index rebounded.
In terms of the relative performance of commodities, the copper gold ratio rose, while the oil gold ratio and London gold / CRB industrial metals fell. In terms of the relative performance of the bond market, the interest rate spread between China and the United States has become positive and the interest rate spread between Germany and the United States has narrowed. In terms of the relative value of stocks and bonds, the revised risk premium under Wande’s full a caliber has dropped, and the risk premium of S & P 500 has rebounded.
Leading assets: crude oil, US dollar and convertible bonds dominated the performance on the 20th.
Risk warning: Overseas volatility intensifies; Macroeconomic policy changes beyond expectations; Regulatory policies exceeded expectations.
