I. defensive atmosphere, maintain offensive thinking and look for opportunities in decline
The recent overseas market shock has restrained the A-share market. Historically, the impact of Geopolitics on global risk appetite is not lasting. Subsequently, with the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase / table contraction gradually stabilizing, the overseas market may stabilize. After the removal of overseas adverse factors and the superposition of China’s policy friendly environment, the A-share market may usher in a stage from defensive to offensive. At present, interest rate futures imply that the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates continues to rise. Historically, there is a certain adjustment pressure in the US stock market in the stage of unstable expectation. The Fed’s interest rate meeting will be held on January 27. After that, the market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate increase / reduction is expected to stabilize, whether it is expected to increase interest rates three or four times. When the expectation of interest rate increase / reduction tends to stabilize, US stocks may stabilize gradually.
Although it is close to the Spring Festival holiday and there is a trade-off between holding shares and holding money for the holiday, there are no obvious negative factors in China. The downward performance has become the consensus expectation of the market and will not become the core factor leading the market. At present, China’s policy is also in the stage of continuous easing. With the interest rate cut and the decline of LPR, the bill interest rate has increased significantly recently, indicating that the credit has gradually stabilized and rebounded. At the end of the adjustment, there is no need to be too pessimistic and look for opportunities in the decline.
II. Pay attention to overshoot opportunities in industries such as “Dianxin, electric vehicles, semiconductors, electronics, household appliances and medicine”
1) Dianxin: the industry is still in a high boom and pays attention to high-quality targets. This year, there are still many high-quality targets in the new energy sector with strong high growth certainty and even exceeding the expected space, such as Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) in photovoltaic.
2) electric vehicles: short-term fluctuations are not likely, and the prosperity continues to rise. It is suggested to focus on Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and companies with strong intelligent ability; The battery continues to pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , beiteri, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) , Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) and other targets with strong global competitiveness; Focus on carbon black ( Jiangxi Black Cat Carbon Black Inc.Ltd(002068) ) and aluminum plastic film with improved localization rate; From the perspective of tight balance between supply and demand, pay attention to negative electrode, PVDF ( Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) , Lecron Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(300343) , etc.).
3) semiconductor: optimistic about the opportunity of high demand and deterministic growth. Equipment manufacturers continue to recommend Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , shengmei Shanghai and other companies; Power semiconductors and compound semiconductors Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Wuxi Chipown Micro-Electronics Limited(688508) .
4) Electronics: continue to be optimistic about the market of electronic semiconductors for new energy and consumer electronics after the festival. Electronic semiconductors for new energy focus on Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Tdg Holding Co.Ltd(600330) . Consumer electronics semiconductor focuses on Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Goertek Inc(002241) , Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co.Ltd(002384) , Avary Holding (Shenzhen) Co.Limited(002938) , Shenzhen Sunlord Electronics Co.Ltd(002138) , Chaozhou Three-Circle(Group) Co.Ltd(300408) , Zhejiang Jiemei Electronic And Technology Co.Ltd(002859) , Shanghai Awinic Technology Co.Ltd(688798) .
5) home appliances: grasp the opportunity of undervaluation. Clean, integrated stove, high view growth track attention Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) . Kitchen faucet pays attention to Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) . Valuation switching focus under new growth Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) .
6) medicine: clear the pressure and turn to counterattack around value growth. Actively arrange high-quality medical devices, high-quality targets of traditional Chinese medicine, covid-19 antigen detection, routine in vitro diagnosis, medical informatization and new medical infrastructure, chain pharmacies, etc. Key companies: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) , Autobio Diagnostics Co.Ltd(603658) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) , Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) , Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) etc.
Risk tips: economic recovery is less than expected, macro liquidity contraction risk, overseas Black Swan risk, photovoltaic installation is less than expected, new energy vehicle sales are less than expected, semiconductor demand and capital expenditure are less than expected, real estate chain is less than expected, and the impact of pharmaceutical related policies is more than expected
