Combined with the latest trading sentiment tracking, peripheral panic resurfaced, domestic and foreign differences continued to reach a new high in recent two years, and the trading of digital economy heated up. On the one hand, the geopolitical contradictions between Russia and Ukraine are fermenting, the VIX Index is rising rapidly, affecting China's risk appetite, the rise and fall limit ratio of all a stocks, new high stocks, MACD strong stocks, trend dominant stocks and other indicators are collectively falling, and the upward action can continue to weaken; On the other hand, the differences between domestic and foreign funds continue to increase, reaching a new high since 2020. In addition, in terms of transaction structure, the transaction concentration and transaction differentiation level are basically maintained near the historical center, the trading of digital economy has increased significantly, and the proportion of IT services, software, animation, film and television and games has increased.
1. Transaction structure tracking
1) level of differentiation between rise and fall: the center of rise and fall has dropped in the past Sunday, and the differentiation between February and August has increased. Among them, the median daily rise and fall of individual stocks in recent 5 days, 20 days and 60 days were - 0.72%, - 0.16% and 0.13% respectively; The differentiation of 28 earnings rose to 23.69%, and the degree of transaction differentiation rebounded to 17.
2) transaction concentration: the transaction concentration of individual stocks has rebounded. The transaction proportion of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks changed by 0.1%, 0.27% and 0.55% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 46.5%, 54.6% and 60.4% respectively. The overall transaction concentration of the industry has rebounded, of which the proportion of transactions in the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industries has changed by 0.2%, 0.99% and 0.86% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 2.9%, 19.3% and 22% respectively.
3) trading differentiation level: the trading differentiation level of individual stocks has declined. The trading differentiation coefficients of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks have changed by - 3.76%, - 1.69% and - 1.12% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 79.7%, 71.5% and 61% respectively. The level of industry transaction differentiation has rebounded. The top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industry transaction differentiation coefficients changed by - 3.98%, 2.91% and 0.22% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 67.5%, 75.9% and 71.2% respectively.
2. Market sentiment tracking
1) the 10 day moving average of the price limit ratio of all a fell back to 2.70, and the turnover rate of all a rose to 6.97%. 2) The VIX Index rose 9.66 month on month to 28.85. 3) The number of new stocks in a fell month on month and the number of new low stocks rebounded month on month: the 10-day moving average of the number of new high stocks in 60 days fell to 296, and the 10-day moving average of the number of new low stocks in 60 days rose to 2 The 10 day moving average of the number of record high stocks fell back to 14, and the 10 day moving average of the number of record low stocks rebounded to 11. 4) The number of trend dominated stocks fell. The proportion of stocks above the 60 day moving average fell to 45.07% month on month, reaching a record high in recent January, and the number of stocks fell to 126. 5) The proportion of MACD strong stocks in the whole a market fell back to 15.86%, and the proportion of weak stocks rebounded to 33.92%. 6) All a leveraged funds sentiment fell to 18.80%. 7) The net inflow of foreign trading ma30 rose to 1.673 billion yuan.
3. Micro liquidity tracking
1) monetary tightness: the net monetary investment is 120 billion yuan, the short-term interest rate is down, the Shibor of each period is down, the interest rate of treasury bonds is down, the credit spread of each period is up, and the RMB is up.
2) capital supply: the new issuance scale of partial equity funds is about 25.389 billion yuan, the ETF share increases by 6.594 billion month on month, the net inflow of funds going north is 29.197 billion yuan, and the financing balance decreases by 22.164 billion yuan month on month.
3) capital demand: there are 8 new IPOs, the initial financing scale is 10.967 billion yuan, the reduction scale of industrial capital is about 11.317 billion yuan, and there is no new fixed increase refinancing. In addition, the pressure of lifting the ban rose month on month this week, with the scale of lifting the ban of about 194.735 billion yuan.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Macroeconomic fluctuations exceeding expectations; 3. There are some errors in the statistical model.
