Event: as of January 24, the “two sessions” in 30 provinces have been held (postponed in Tianjin), and the national “two sessions” have been held from March 4 to 5.
Core view: in 2022, the “two sessions” of all localities will continue the main tone since the central economic work conference on December 10, that is, take economic construction as the center, carry out cross cycle and counter cycle simultaneously, and make every effort to stabilize growth. The national GDP target rate in 2022 is about 5.5%, and the bottom line is more than 5%. Loose real estate, expand infrastructure and promote consumption are the main focus, scientific and technological innovation, double carbon High end manufacturing and digital economy are the focus of industrial transformation, focusing on institutional dividends such as state-owned enterprise reform and urban agglomeration. Continue to remind that we should not underestimate the determination and strength of the country to stabilize growth. The policy environment in 2022 will be relatively friendly to the economy and the market, so we can enjoy our point of view.
Signal 1: steady growth is the top priority of local work in 2022. Most provinces take steady growth as the top priority in 2022, 14 provinces take steady growth as the first priority and 6 provinces as the second priority; Most of the other provinces also take expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption and promoting investment in major projects as the top priorities.
Signal 2: the GDP target of most provinces is higher than 5.5%. The probability of national GDP target in 2022 is about 5.5%, and the bottom line is more than 5%. In 2022, except that Beijing’s GDP target is more than 5%, that of Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, Heilongjiang and Qinghai is about 5.5%, and that of other provinces is higher than 5.5%. The national GDP target can be calculated according to the weighted average GDP target growth rate of each province. We maintain the judgment that the national GDP target rate this year is about 5.5%. In terms of rhythm, Q1 is still under great economic pressure, which is the economic low point of the year. From Q2, the economic momentum will gradually rise.
Signal 3: there are three main focuses for steady growth in various regions: loosening real estate, expanding infrastructure and promoting consumption
> pine real estate: in 2022, all localities generally emphasized “promoting the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry”, while last year, all provinces generally emphasized “solving the prominent housing problems in big cities”, pointing to the loosening of local real estate policies. Maintaining the previous judgment, we believe that steady growth is inseparable from real estate, and real estate regulation is expected to usher in substantive relaxation.
> expansion of infrastructure: the weighted average growth rate of fixed investment target of all provinces in 2022 is 8.5%, slightly higher than 8.2% in 2021, pointing to the loosening of real estate and the development of infrastructure, in which the old infrastructure is the focus and the new infrastructure is relatively diluted. Continue to prompt: in 2022, infrastructure investment is expected to increase to about 8% or higher than expected. The old infrastructure can focus on four directions.
> promoting consumption: the weighted average social zero target growth rate of all provinces in 2022 was 7.8%, which was slightly lower than 8.3% in 2021, pointing to that consumption is still depressed. Bulk consumption (such as new energy vehicles, green smart appliances, green furniture, etc.) is the main focus. It is expected that the overall consumption will remain weak in 2022, which is lower than the normal level. Q1 is a short-term low and Q2 begins to recover weakly.
Signal 4: stable employment is still a hard requirement. The 24 provinces plan to add a total of 13.91 million jobs. The target of urban survey unemployment rate in most provinces is controlled within 5% or 5.5%, and the overall situation is consistent with that in 2021; In terms of new employment, 24 of the 30 provinces that have held the “two sessions” have clearly put forward the goal of new employment in 2022, with a total of 13.905 million people. In addition, the employment of key groups and the protection of workers’ rights and interests are also the focus of the provinces.
Signal 5: industrial policy has four key points: scientific and technological innovation, double carbon, high-end manufacturing and digital economy
> scientific and technological innovation: it is still the focus of attention of all provinces in 2022 (more than half of the provinces are ranked in the top three key tasks), and enterprise innovation ability, innovation platform and key base research are the core; 17 provinces have made clear the development goal of “specialized, special and new” enterprises.
> double carbon & double control: more emphasis on “orderly” promotion, and curbing the blind development of “two high” projects, new energy and energy conservation and emission reduction in key industries are the main driving points; Shanxi, Chongqing, Hunan and other places emphasize improving their own “1 + n” policy system.
> high end manufacturing: provinces plan to focus on automobiles, integrated circuits, high-end equipment, biomedicine, new energy, etc; At the same time, all localities also emphasize the expansion, extension, high-end and intelligent transformation according to their existing industrial advantages.
> Digital Economy: its importance has increased. Almost all provinces have put forward clear plans for the development of digital economy, and data infrastructure and intelligence are the focus of local attention. In terms of industrial development, Fujian requires “the added value of digital economy is more than 2.6 trillion yuan”, and Zhejiang, Hunan and Tibet require digital economy growth of 12%, 15% and 10% respectively.
Signal 6: the reform policy is further promoted, focusing on the reform of state-owned enterprises. 2022 is the last year of the three-year battle of state-owned enterprise reform. Most provinces said they would continue to vigorously promote the reform of state-owned enterprises in enterprise ownership, market-oriented operation, state-owned asset supervision system and state-owned economic layout, so as to ensure the “smooth conclusion” of the three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform. Many provinces also stressed the need to deepen the reform of market-oriented allocation of factors, the reform of business environment, the reform of “decentralization, management and service”, the reform of finance, taxation and finance, the reform of scientific and technological system, the comprehensive reform of agriculture and rural areas, and the reform of government institutions.
Signal 7: regional policies continue to be strengthened, focusing on Rural Revitalization and coordinated development of metropolitan urban agglomeration. The four major urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Chengdu Chongqing metropolitan area continued to advance, and the development of inter regional industrial transfer and undertaking, administrative reform, joint construction and sharing of public services and interconnection of transportation infrastructure accelerated. In addition, the coordinated development within most provinces and cities has also accelerated, such as Changji integration, Lanzhou economic circle, Changzhutan metropolitan circle, Xi’an metropolitan circle, etc.
Signal 8: risk prevention is still the focus, mainly local implicit debt risk and real estate risk. On the whole, firmly guarding against systemic financial risks is the bottom line task of risk prevention. In terms of the risk of local implicit debt, we should resolutely curb the increase of implicit debt, properly dispose of the stock of implicit debt, and strengthen the risk early warning of local implicit debt; In terms of preventing risks in the field of real estate, local governments require to actively deal with problematic real estate and properly deal with the performance risks of real estate enterprises.
Signal 9: other concerns: epidemic prevention and control, common prosperity, etc
> epidemic prevention and control: all localities emphasize “paying close attention to normalized epidemic prevention and control”, “adhering to the general strategy of” external defense input and internal defense rebound “and the general policy of” dynamic zeroing “, indicating that China’s policy of” dynamic zeroing “will not change in the short term, and epidemic prevention in all localities will remain strict. However, at the same time, it also puts more emphasis on “coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and continuing to do a good job in six stabilities and six guarantees”.
> common prosperity: nearly half of the provinces put forward to solidly promote common prosperity and take common prosperity as the goal and requirement of improving people’s livelihood. Among them, the focus is: Beijing proposed to “study and formulate the implementation plan to promote common prosperity”, Guangdong proposed to “actively explore the path and mode to achieve common prosperity”, and Henan stressed its support for Xuchang to build a pilot area for urban-rural integration and common prosperity.
Risk tip: the epidemic development exceeded expectations, and the implementation of policies was less than expected.
