Ping An View:
Real economy: this week, the number of new local confirmed cases in China continued to fall, the operating rate was mostly weakened, industrial products were destocked, the low level of high-frequency indicators of domestic demand warmed up, the spot price of black goods fell, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices continued to be weak. 1) From last Saturday to this Friday (May 14 to May 20), a total of 1303 new confirmed cases were added in 17 provinces and autonomous regions such as Shanghai, Beijing and Sichuan, which continued to decline compared with 2158 new cases in 20 provinces and autonomous regions from May 7 to May 13. 2) Operating rates mostly weakened. Among them, the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace related to black goods was flat at 57.1% month on month, and the operating rate of coking enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points month on month; The operating rate of petroleum asphalt units related to infrastructure construction decreased by 4.5 percentage points month on month this week, and the operation rate of cement mill decreased by 0.4 percentage points month on month last week; The operating rates of semi steel tires and all steel tires related to the automobile industry chain increased by 1.5 percentage points and decreased by 1.1 percentage points respectively month on month. 3) Industrial products to inventory. Among the finished products, the rebar factory warehouse + social warehouse decreased by 1.3% month on month, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 3.8% month on month. In the raw material inventory, the port iron ore inventory decreased by 3.1% compared with last week, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking plant can be used for 13.2 days, 0.3 days shorter than last week. 4) Most high-frequency indicators related to domestic demand rebounded at a low level. The average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased slightly by 0.1% this week, and the land supply area, transaction area and transaction land premium rate of 100 cities all rebounded month on month last week; The average daily sales volume of passenger car manufacturers last week, the average daily revenue of national film box office this week, and the average daily passenger traffic volume of subway in 9 major cities this week all increased month on month. However, compared with the level in the same period in recent years, the above indicators are at a low level, which is more the repair after the impact of the epidemic is weakened. 5) This week, the price trend of black commodity futures was stronger than that of spot, and most of the spot prices fell. This week, the futures prices of coke, coking coal, iron ore, rebar and thermal coal increased by 4.1%, 3.7%, 2.4%, 0.7% and 1.6% respectively compared with the previous week; The spot price of thermal coal has not been announced this week. The spot prices of coke, coking coal, iron ore and rebar fell 6.0%, 1.5%, 1.0% and 2.2% month on month, respectively. The Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index has been updated to Thursday (May 19) this week. It has fallen by 1.1% in the first four days of this week, of which the wholesale prices of vegetables and fruits have fallen by 1.1% and 1.2% respectively, and the wholesale prices of pork and eggs have risen by 2.5% and 0.8% respectively.
Capital market: this week, the stock bond exchange strengthened simultaneously, the main stock indexes of A-Shares rose, the yields of treasury bonds of all maturities fell, and the RMB exchange rate appreciated. In terms of bonds and money market, the loose capital continued this week, and the current physical financing demand may still be weak, which is one of the reasons for the abundant liquidity of the financial system. The funds were loose, the main economic data released on Monday were lower than expected, and the US bond yield fell. These factors jointly promoted the decline of China's bond yield of various maturities, and the downward range at the short end was greater, and the bond yield curve moved steeply downward. In terms of stock and foreign exchange markets, the main stock indexes of A-Shares continued to rebound this week, with relatively better growth style; Recently released economic data exacerbated concerns about US economic stagflation. The US dollar index closed at 103.0 on Friday and fell 1.36% month on month this week. This week, the onshore RMB appreciated by 1.63% against the US dollar and the offshore RMB appreciated by 1.48%. The subsequent progress of Sino US economic and trade tariff issues may have a great impact on the trend of RMB asset prices.
Risk tip: the steady growth is not as strong as expected, the epidemic situation in China is spreading at multiple points, and geopolitical conflicts are escalating.
