Production side observation: this week (5.16-5.20), the steel operating rate continued to rise; The coal operating rate continued to rise and the inventory decreased; The operating rate of chemical industry rebounded steadily; The operating rate of automobile steel tire remains stable. Overall, the production side has steadily warmed up.
Demand side observation: this week (may 16-may 20), the real estate boom has improved, the land transactions in the second and third tier cities have warmed up, the commercial housing transactions have improved marginally, and the listing index of second-hand housing sales has remained stable; The pace of infrastructure recovery slowed down, and the prices of major related products continued to fall; The number of new cases of pneumonia in China continues to decline, and the peak of the epidemic has passed; The SCFI composite index rebounded, reflecting the recovery of China’s export boom.
Inflation observation: the average wholesale price of pork this week (5.16-5.20) increased by 1.5% to 21.0 yuan / kg compared with last week; In terms of energy prices, the price of Brent crude oil increased by 5.0% to 113.2 US dollars / barrel, and the price of natural gas increased by 16% to 171.2 pence / Semm; In terms of non-ferrous metal prices, copper and aluminum prices have increased.
Risk warning: policy uncertainty; Fundamentals exceeded expectations; Geopolitical conflict.
