Summary and Prospect of commodity market
The policy expectation is differentiated, and the varieties of domestic demand are stronger than those of external demand
On Thursday (January 20), China's commodity futures market closed mostly higher, with base metals and black series leading the rise. The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose by the limit, stainless steel rose by more than 6%, Shanghai tin rose by more than 4%, and international copper rose by nearly 2%. Precious metals all rose, with Shanghai silver up more than 2% and Shanghai Gold up more than 1%; Most of them rose, with apple and rapeseed meal up more than 3% and soybean meal up nearly 3%; Energy chemicals fluctuated, with asphalt up nearly 3%, LPG up nearly 2%, PVC up more than 1%, and styrene and No. 20 rubber down more than 1%.
Hot comments: following the central bank's announcement to cut MLF and Omo interest rates by 10bp each, on Thursday, the one-year LPR interest rate was cut by 10bp and the five-year LPR was cut by 5bp. The loose monetary policy is still on the way, the expectation of steady growth is constantly strengthened, the market sentiment turns to optimism, and most commodities rose, especially those with high correlation with domestic demand. At the same time, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January approaching, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in March continues to rise. The money market interest rate shows that the probability of interest rate hike exceeds 90%, the US bond interest rate rises, the US dollar index rebounds, suppresses non-ferrous metals, crude oil and other international demand varieties, and presents the trend of "internal strength and external weakness" again. Follow up focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January.
1. Black building materials: steady growth and continuous warming, and the trend of black building materials is strong.
Although from the perspective of long-term cycle, the inflection point of real estate demand has arrived, with the continuous force of steady growth in short-term cycle, real estate will show more soft landing, and demand is expected to hit the bottom in the second quarter. At the same time, this year's fiscal policy is in advance, and the new and old infrastructure is worth looking forward to. The most pessimistic stage of steel demand may be over. At the same time, the central bank has started a new round of easing cycle. After the reduction of Omo and MLF interest rates, LPR interest rates have been reduced, and market sentiment has turned to optimism.
From a fundamental point of view, the new year is approaching, the actual demand continues to weaken, while the steel output has rebounded, the accumulation rate of steel inventory has accelerated, and the winter storage price is mostly between 4500-4600. Under the hedging demand, the rebound space of steel price may be limited. Focus on the trend of spot follow futures prices.
2. Base metals: long and short factors are intertwined, and copper prices may remain high and volatile.
Despite the continuous introduction of China's policy easing measures to enhance market sentiment, the Omicron virus has brought more uncertainty to the global economic recovery. At the same time, many officials of the Federal Reserve have made hawkish remarks one after another, the US bond interest rate has risen again, supporting the US dollar index to rise again, and the copper price is affected by long and short factors at the same time. From a fundamental point of view, on the one hand, the supply of upstream copper mines shows an increasing trend, the supply of copper mines has improved compared with the previous period, and the import of crude copper has gradually recovered. The supply of raw materials for smelters is sufficient, and the production scheduling enthusiasm of smelters is high. China's refined copper output is expected to remain high; On the other hand, although the consumption in the downstream is weakening before the Spring Festival, there is a willingness to bargain hunting and stock, the inventory maintains a downward trend, and the market presents a tight supply situation, which forms a strong support for the copper price. Under the intertwined long and short factors, copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend.
Precious metals: the short-term correction of the US dollar index, the sharp rise in industrial prices and the escalation of the geopolitical crisis supported the rebound of gold prices. However, under the pressure of high inflation, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continued to rise, the US bond interest rate continued to rise, and the trend of gold remained under pressure. Pay attention to the new guidelines on the prospect of interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting this month.
3. Energy and chemical industry: supply and demand are still tight, and oil prices are still strongly supported.
IEA predicted on Wednesday that global oil demand is expected to reach the pre epidemic level in 2022. Meanwhile, OPEC held its forecast of strong growth in global oil demand in 2022 on two-dimensional. Despite the emergence of Omicron mutation virus and the expected increase in interest rates, the oil market is expected to be well supported this year.
At present, the supply and demand of crude oil remains tight, and the oil price still has strong support in the short term. On the one hand, although there are many new confirmed cases in the world, it has not had more impact on the demand for crude oil. High frequency data show that the traffic congestion index and airport security inspection personnel in the United States are at a high level, reflecting that the consumption of refined oil has not been affected; On the other hand, OPEC + continues to adhere to the production increase plan of 400000 barrels / day, but smaller oil producing countries cannot achieve production increase, while the power for shale oil production in the United States is insufficient, and there are still many uncertainties on the supply side. Continue to pay attention to the output policy of OPEC + and the trend of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.
4. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) : the supply and demand structure is tight and the oil runs strongly.
Meidou: Although the rainfall probability in Argentina and southern Brazil continued to improve and suppress the price of meidou, strong demand supported the market. NOPA data showed that the crushing volume of meidou hit an all-time high in December, superimposed by the continuous rise of energy prices and high macro sentiment, meidou rebounded again.
Soybean oil: monitoring shows that last week, China's soybean crushing volume rebounded significantly, and the output of soybean oil increased. However, downstream enterprises continued to stock goods, picked up goods faster, and the inventory of soybean oil continued to decline slightly. Soybean crush volume will continue to increase this week, and soybean oil inventory is expected to stop falling and turn up.
Palm oil: sppoma data show that from January 1 to 15, horse palm production decreased by 20.86% month on month, narrower than the previous 10 days. At present, Malaysia's palm oil is still in the production reduction cycle. The superposition of labor shortage and floods in Malaysia and China have interfered with the harvest work. It is expected that the output may not recover significantly before the first quarter. In addition, its data showed that from January 1 to 20, the export of horse palm decreased by 38.4% month on month, indicating that the export demand of palm oil has weakened.
As the expectation of horse palm production reduction continues to strengthen, palm oil prices remain strong, superimposed with the sharp rise in international crude oil prices, supporting oil prices, which may continue to be strong.
