Investment summary:
The A-share dividend index was the only red index in the fourth week of January. The top indexes in the week were Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, China Stock Exchange 100, Shanghai Stock Exchange 180, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and other indexes. The indexes with large declines during the week were national securities 2000, China Securities 1000 and gem composite indexes.
Since the beginning of the year, the top indexes are dividend index, A-share index, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and China stock exchange index.
Since the beginning of the year, the top performing sectors are banks, coal mines, real estate and architectural decoration, and the worst performing sectors are medicine and biology, beauty care, power equipment and national defense and military industry.
In the past week, the sector rotation differentiation is obvious, and the hot spots are scattered. Among them, banking, coal, real estate and other sectors increased the most. The pharmaceutical, biological and defense industries performed poorly.
This week, northbound funds generally showed a net inflow, and the net purchase of foreign capital was 29.197 billion yuan. The top five stocks that foreign investors bought in this week were China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (RMB 4.773 billion), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (RMB 2.357 billion), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (RMB 1.841 billion), Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (RMB 1.674 billion) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (RMB 1.204 billion). The top five stocks of this week’s net outflow of foreign capital were China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (- 1.205 billion yuan), Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) (- 1.092 billion yuan), Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) (- 671 million yuan), Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) (- 667 million yuan) and Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) (- 547 million yuan).
In this week’s global macroeconomic data, China’s industrial added value rose 13% year-on-year in December, maintaining growth for three consecutive months; Investment in fixed assets decreased by 6 percentage points year-on-year; In December, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 4126.9 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 3.9%; In the fourth quarter, the GDP increased by 4% year-on-year, and the annual GDP increased by 8%; Among the upstream products, the crude steel output of key enterprises increased by 25% year-on-year in December. Internationally, affected by the epidemic and other factors, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States increased by 12% in the week of January 8; In January, the euro zone ZEW Economic Prosperity Index rose 84% month on month; In December, EU CPI rose slightly by 2% year-on-year and remained unchanged month on month; Japan’s CPI in December changed from up to down, with CPI deflation of 10% month on month;
Meso observation: Microsoft launched the largest acquisition of overweight universe in game history and announced that it would buy Activision Blizzard, a publisher of game development and interactive entertainment content, for us $68.7 billion in cash. Microsoft may hope to expand and replace many traditional online social networking activities through the virtual world built by games, and finally build its own larger and more focused community and improve the construction of meta universe ecology.
Research on the history of overseas interest rate hike: a comprehensive review of the economic and interest rate prediction law of the Federal Reserve Committee in 2015: the current deviation between the downward trend of China’s risk-free rate of return and the upward trend of foreign risk-free rate of return is very similar to the two quarters before December 2015 (the first interest rate hike in the United States). After the first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, once the pace of interest rate hike similar to 2016 slows down, It is very likely that there will be a correction in the same direction of China US risk-free return similar to q1-q3 in 2016.
Investment strategy: in the past week, China’s monetary policy has continued to be loose. The interest rates of MLF and reverse repo two important policies have been reduced by 10 basis points than expected. The one-year LPR has been reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7%, and the five-year LPR has been reduced by 0.05 percentage points to 4.60%. It is expected that the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds will reach a stage high in the near future, and the short-term fluctuation of the market is expected to come to an end. Once the pace of overseas interest rate hikes slows down, it will bring new opportunities for valuation repair to Chinese growth stocks. It is recommended to continue to lay out the high-quality leaders of TMT computer, media, communication and electronic core track.
Risk tip: Overseas liquidity risk, China’s monetary policy tightening risk
