Research conclusion
Since the beginning of the year, although China's monetary policy has continued to be loose and the steady growth policy has continued to make efforts, the mainstream track stocks dominated by new energy vehicles and medicine have fallen sharply, attracting market attention. There are three reasons:
First of all, the Federal Reserve emphasizes the position of inflation and the prospect of raising interest rates. The Federal Reserve completed taper in the first quarter of this year, and the possibility of raising interest rates in June and three times in the year has increased significantly. The bottom of U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield rebounded. Influenced by the valuation of U.S. growth stocks, the valuation of A-share growth stocks also fell sharply. Secondly, in terms of economy and stock market, while steady growth has become the main tone, the trading volume of more than trillion has gradually become the norm. The Shanghai composite index is only a slight correction, and relevant steady growth sectors such as infrastructure and real estate have increased more. Third, since 2019, growth stocks such as new energy vehicles and semiconductors have accumulated large gains. At present, the valuation is expensive and the market has given high performance expectations; On the contrary, most stocks in sectors dominated by infrastructure and real estate are still at the bottom. In the process of abundant funds and policy shift to steady growth, it provides opportunities for undervalued and low-priced stocks.
This year, the resonance between national policies and market style may become an important investment logic and main line. The long-term strategic policies of semiconductor, carbon neutral and other countries have not changed, but due to the excessive increase in the early stage, the future performance expectations have been overdrawn, and there is still room for improvement after adjustment. Similarly, this year's steady growth policy and sectors with low expectations will bring investment opportunities, and the emergence of new policies, new cycles and new technologies will also bring new changes, mainly in the following three directions:
\u3000\u30001. Reverse industries under low expectations: epidemic damaged sectors dominated by catering, tourism and transportation. The uncertainty of the epidemic situation may still disturb the prosperity and recovery rhythm of the industry, but as the overseas epidemic gradually comes to an end, the market expectation is becoming more and more sufficient. We think we can start to be appropriately optimistic about the subject matter with long-term growth and recovery certainty. At the same time, the most important policy guideline for the whole year is steady growth. Under this expectation, the real estate, real estate chain and infrastructure chain are expected to have favorable policy margins throughout the year.
\u3000\u30002. Asset injection such as state-owned enterprise reform: 2022 is the closing year of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform, which needs to produce results. Strategic restructuring, professional integration and related mergers and acquisitions bring investment opportunities. The logic of improving the asset securitization rate is mainly to inject high-quality assets into the existing listing platform, improve the asset securitization rate of the group, and focus on the military industry sector with low asset securitization rate.
\u3000\u30003. The emergence of new themes: policies such as the 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy and the 14th five year plan for promoting the informatization of national government affairs directly catalyze the formation of digital economy, information and innovation industry and digital currency; Metauniverse will continue to deduce or gradually spread from content and platform to hardware; The auto parts and auto intelligent industry will come out of the lack of core, and will show some performance with the improvement of the intelligent penetration rate of new energy vehicles.
These new themes will continue to perform in the process of the transformation of the stock market from capital driven to performance driven. At the same time, superimposed with the characteristics of small market value, low increase and undervalued value, once there is marginal improvement, the rebound will exceed market expectations.
To sum up, in terms of configuration, on the one hand, it is suggested to focus on the technology sector with strong long-term policy certainty, large industry space and accelerated domestic substitution. Although the short-term adjustment range of military industry, new energy vehicles and new energy is large, it is still the medium and long-term configuration direction of the market. On the other hand, it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the new market style and new policies in the medium and short-term market.
Risk tips
I. China's covid-19 outbreak exceeded expectations
II. The steady growth policy was not promoted as expected
