Key investment points:
The main broad-band indexes of A-Shares showed differentiation: the main indexes of A-Shares rose and fell in the week from January 17 to January 21. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% to close at 3522.57 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86%, the gem index fell 2.72%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.11% and the Kechuang 50 fell 1.67%. This week, most of Shenwan level industries fell, among which medicine and biology, national defense and military industry, basic chemical industry and other industries fell first, while coal, computers and banks increased significantly.
The turnover of the two cities rose month on month, and investor confidence remains to be repaired: affected by the interest rate reduction policy, the market turnover this week increased compared with last week. The average daily turnover of the two cities during the week was 1101.563 billion yuan, a slight increase of about 2.45% compared with last week. The turnover rate of major broad stock indexes fluctuated downward for two consecutive weeks, and investor sentiment has not yet recovered. In terms of transaction volume by industry, affected by the spread of the epidemic in China, the transaction volume of the pharmaceutical and biological sector remained strong this week, ranking first for four consecutive weeks, with a transaction volume of 668.946 billion yuan that week. Boosted by the favorable digital economy policy, the computer sector ranked second, with a turnover of 557.694 billion yuan that week.
Investment suggestion: at the national financial work conference a few days ago, Minister of Finance Liu Kun called for an active fiscal policy in 2022 to expand the scale of fiscal expenditure while "maintaining appropriate expenditure intensity and improving expenditure accuracy". In 2021, the fiscal expenditure was slow and there was a large balance at the end of the year, which provided space for the cross cycle use of fiscal funds and supported the "steady growth" of the economy. In addition, the meeting also asked the government to improve the efficiency of fund use, such as revitalizing stock assets and optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure, which is expected to become the key content of expanding the scale of fiscal expenditure.
Since the beginning of this year, major projects in many parts of the country have been started intensively, and the scale of investment has increased significantly. Among them, Henan, Anhui and other places have put forward investment growth targets of 10% or more. In terms of investment areas, infrastructure construction, especially new infrastructure, has become an important driving point. At present, fixed asset investment will still become an important starting point of the underlying economy, in which infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will become the main driving force to jointly support the growth of fixed asset investment. In terms of industry configuration: 1) it is recommended to pay attention to the rebound in the main line of "stable growth", the promotion of holiday effect and the required consumption with price increase expectation; 2) Benefiting from financial support, accelerated commencement of projects and strong market expectations, infrastructure sectors, especially 5g, UHV, urban rail, charging pile and other new infrastructure sectors in line with policy guidance.
Risk factors: the epidemic situation is repeated, the macro-economy is less than expected, and the regulatory policy is tightened.
