In addition to Tianjin, the other 30 provinces and cities have successively held the local two sessions. Compared with 2021, the weighted total of local targets in 2022: GDP decreased by 0.7pct, fixed investment increased by 0.1pct and social zero decreased by 0.3pct. Referring to the local two sessions and employment pressure, it is expected that the annual GDP target will fall in the range of 5% to 5.5%, rather than about 5%. The primary development tasks of the two sessions focus on steady growth, high-quality development and regional coordination (ranking in order). New and old infrastructure, old reform and affordable housing are the three main directions for steady growth.
The spring market is still worth looking forward to, and demand side policies and financial data may be the focus of attention next. The performance of individual stocks expected to exceed expectations is more stable. Therefore, from a top-down perspective, industries with stable growth during the economic downturn deserve more attention. It is expected that the steady growth policy will be fully implemented in 2022 and become one of the core mainlines in the capital market. In addition, the inflation scissors are narrowing, which is good for the consumer sector.
In the stock pool of the whole market this week. The logarithmic market value factor obtains a positive return of 0.57%, and the nonlinear market value factor obtains a negative return of – 0.60%. The market tends to be large market value style. The return of BP factor is 0.36%, and the market value effect is obvious. In terms of single factor performance, the factors in the CSI 300 stock pool performed poorly, and most of the factor combinations lost the index. The valuation factors of CSI 500 and liquidity 1500 stocks in the pool performed well.
This week, the size of the market showed polarization, with large declines in small cap stocks and strong reversals in large cap stocks. In terms of industry valuation, power and public utilities, automobiles, commercial retail, consumer services, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, computers and media are at the “dangerous” level of the valuation quantile. From the perspective of capital in the north, the allocation of power equipment and new energy, bank and non bank finance, and the net sales of medicine, consumer services and household appliances; In the trading order, the bank, non bank finance and basic chemical industry sold net machinery, power equipment, new energy and media.
The issuance market of new funds has cooled down as a whole, and the number and scale of issuance have decreased significantly. In the face of the cold in the fund issuance market and the depressed purchase intention of investors, public funds speed up the pace of self purchase products. In terms of major categories of assets, the market rose or fell this week, with the Hang Seng Index leading the rise, with an increase of 2.39%. In terms of the fund market, the fixed income fund index rose slightly, the equity fund index fell slightly, and the financial real estate and Hong Kong stock theme funds performed prominently.
In terms of the issuance scale of the primary market: a total of 366.608 billion yuan of credit bonds (corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium-term notes, short-term financing bonds and directional instruments) were issued this week, a decrease of 1.79% on a weekly basis; The total repayment was 261.597 billion yuan, and the net financing was 105.011 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.24% on a weekly basis. A total of 69 urban investment bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 46.310 billion yuan. In terms of trading volume in the secondary market: a total of 643.389 billion credit bonds were traded this week.
On the 17th, the central bank carried out 700 billion yuan MLF operation and 100 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, and the bid winning interest rate decreased by 10 basis points compared with the previous period. On January 20, the one-year LPR reported 3.7%, down 10 basis points; Varieties with a maturity of more than 5 years reported 4.6%, down 5 basis points. China’s economic data for 2021 is released. In 2021, China’s GDP increased by 8.1%, with an average growth of 5.1% in two years; Among them, the fourth quarter increased by 4%. The yield of treasury bonds in the secondary market fell in an all-round way, and the yield of 1y treasury bonds fell by 17bp.
Investors can pay attention to the following directions: 1) since January 2022, the market has adjusted continuously, and the investment main line is unclear. It is particularly critical to control the withdrawal. It is suggested to pay attention to the medium price bonds with high debt bottom. 2) “Steady growth” is the main line of phased investment. In the long term, we focus on the opportunities related to new infrastructure, such as communication, power grid, green power operators and power generators with energy transformation. 3) Investors can focus on exploring the investment opportunities of “dilemma reversal” companies. 4) Industries damaged and recovered from the epidemic, such as flexible optional consumption, food processing, etc.
