Short term disturbance does not hinder the spring Market
The spring market is still worth looking forward to. Historically, “spring agitation” appears almost every year and is rarely absent, but the time of its emergence is different. In some years, there are market worthy of attention only after late January. We believe that the logic of this spring market is still tenable, and the spring market is still worthy of attention.
Demand side policy and financial data may be the focus of attention next. At present, the easing trend of monetary policy has been very obvious. From the end of 21 to the beginning of 22, the central bank has successively implemented easing policies such as reducing reserve requirements and interest rates. In the future, the promotion of demand side policies and the financial data in January may become an important catalyst for the market.
Use “stable growth” to counter the downward trend of profits
In hindsight, the high boom portfolio can indeed achieve high excess returns, but we cannot know the actual profit growth in advance. Historically, the portfolio with high performance growth does have a better market performance. Unfortunately, in hindsight, the portfolio with high growth expectations may not have stable returns, and even its performance is significantly worse than that of the portfolio with low and medium expectations. High earnings expectations may be the core reason for poor stock price performance, because high expectations often mean high valuation, and high expectations and high errors usually coexist.
The performance of individual stocks expected to exceed expectations is more stable. Therefore, from a top-down perspective, industries with stable growth during the economic downturn deserve more attention. In the period of economic downturn, the performance prediction error of industries with stable growth in the general sense is significantly smaller, and the probability of stock price performance exceeding expectations is higher. Therefore, in the spring market, the consumer industries represented by food and beverage, household appliances and medicine, as well as the steady growth related industries represented by building materials and construction, are more certain to obtain excess returns.
One of the two main lines focusing on stability: steady growth
It is expected that the “steady growth” policy will be fully implemented in 2022 and will become one of the core mainlines in the capital market. In recent years, the power of the “steady growth” policy is more to hedge the economic downturn, but it is difficult to make the economy rise again. However, for the capital market, the main line of “steady growth” is still very noteworthy.
The growth rate of fixed asset investment rose in the upward range, and the relevant sectors of “steady growth” performed prominently. Among the five upward growth ranges of fixed asset investment since 2010, the sectors with the best overall performance include banking, real estate, building materials, household appliances, construction and other industries that typically benefit from the “steady growth” policy. And in each upward range, the performance of “stable growth” related industries ranks at the forefront.
Suggestions: 1) traditional infrastructure such as building materials. 2) Wind power, photovoltaic and other new infrastructure.
The second of the two main lines focusing on stability: consumption
The inflation scissors gap is narrowing, which is good for the consumer sector. Historically, there have been three periods in which the inflation scissors have narrowed significantly since 2010, during which the consumer sector has performed well. At the same time, from the perspective of performance, the comparative advantage of the 22-year performance of the consumer sector may be more obvious.
From the perspective of valuation, the overall valuation of the consumer sector is still not low, but the relative adjustment range of valuation has been very obvious. The valuation of the consumer sector is still not low, but compared with the previous valuation, the current valuation adjustment of the consumer sector has been very significant compared with other sectors, and the current valuation has certain advantages. Suggestions: 1) high definition Baijiu and medicine. 2) Household appliances and mass consumer goods benefiting from the subsidy policy.
Risk analysis: the policy force is less than expected; The epidemic situation worsened beyond expectation; Consumer demand fell sharply short of expectations.
