The US dollar index rebounded slightly, the interest rate difference between China and the United States continued to narrow, the Ted interest rate difference narrowed, and China’s capital was loose as a whole. Last week (20220117-20220121), the US dollar index rebounded slightly. As of January 18, 2022, the net long position of the US dollar fell. The interest rate spread between China and the United States continued to narrow, and the nominal / real interest rates of US bonds first rose and then fell. What is implied behind it is that inflation expectations continue to fall. For overseas, Ted interest rate spread has narrowed and remains low, and the financial liquidity in the United States is still abundant; For China, inter-bank funds are generally loose, liquidity stratification is intensified, and term interest margin (10y-1y) continues to widen. In terms of trading heat, the trading heat of media, medicine, construction, computer and other sectors is at a relatively high level in history, and is still rising month on month; The volatility of pharmaceutical, textile and clothing, banking, computer and other sectors increased relatively greatly; In terms of research, electronics, nonferrous metals, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, building materials, banking and other sectors rank first.
The northward allocation sector stabilized and returned, and the trading sector was active. The allocation direction was mainly financial real estate, new energy industry chain and some cyclical sectors. Last week (20220117-20220121), the net purchase of northward allocation was 10.927 billion yuan, and the net purchase of northward trading was 17.213 billion yuan. Daily, northward configuration disk continues to return; The northbound trading market first flowed out and then bought sharply. In the industry, the differences between the trading sector and the configuration sector have been reduced. The consensus is to net buy financial and real estate, Dianxin, chemical industry, food and beverage, building materials, nonferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemical, construction and other industries, and net sell household appliances, consumer services and other industries. In terms of style, the configuration / trading sector has a large net purchase of the large market value / growth, a small purchase of the medium market value / growth, and a small market growth sector, while there are differences in the small market value sector. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation disk, the allocation disk net bought Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 1.015 billion yuan and 76 million yuan respectively, and sold Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 387 million yuan. In terms of market value, the allocation disk last week mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in light industry, computers, electronics, consumer services and other sectors.
The activity of the two financial institutions continued to decline, reaching a low point since 2021. Last week (20220117-20220121), Liangrong sold 24.41 billion yuan, mainly buying computer, military industry, petroleum and petrochemical sectors, and selling medicine, electronics, nonferrous metals, financial real estate, food and beverage sectors. The proportion of financing purchases in consumer services, machinery, electricity and utilities, transportation, petroleum and petrochemical, chemical and other sectors increased month on month. Except for consumer services, other sectors are still at historic lows. In terms of style, Liangrong net sells all kinds of style sectors.
Public offering positions fell, individual investors redeemed first and then continued to apply for purchase, and the wide-based ETF mainly held by institutions was still net applied for purchase. Last week (20220117-20220121), the A-share position of the active partial stock fund fell. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased its positions in pharmaceutical, chemical, Dianxin, military industry, nonferrous metals, automobile and other sectors, and mainly reduced its positions in food and beverage, computer, banking, building materials, home appliances, communication, media and other sectors. Last week, ETFs mainly held by institutions were net subscribed, and they are still dominated by wide base; ETFs mainly held by individuals are redeemed first and then continuously net subscribed, which means that individual investors may redeem first and then continuously subscribe for funds. By industry, among ETFs mainly held by individuals, ETFs related to medicine, new energy, cycle, media, military industry and other sectors were mainly net subscribed, and ETFs related to science and technology, finance, real estate, consumption and other sectors were net redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individuals) is to buy medicine, new energy, military industry and other sectors, and sell consumption, finance, real estate and other sectors at the same time. For trend traders, Liangrong chooses to sell most industries; Northbound trading mainly bought financial real estate, new energy industry chain, large consumption (medicine, food and beverage) and building materials. Overall, the overall divergence of the current market is still large. It is worth mentioning that northward allocation / trading still chose to buy “stable growth” sectors such as financial real estate and some cyclical sectors and new energy industry chain, while active partial equity funds only chose to increase positions in the new energy industry chain, and there were differences on the above “stable growth” sectors. Specifically: at present, while the banking, real estate, construction, building materials, coal, steel, transportation, electric power and other sectors are sold by the active partial stock fund and two financing, the long-term funds represented by the northward allocation sector choose to buy the above sectors, and the overall congestion of the above sectors is low.
Risk tip: measurement error.
