Industrial high frequency periodicity observation. 1) Inflation. This week (01.17-01.21, the same below), the price of pork fell to 21.81 yuan / kg, the specific price of pig grain fell to 5.17, the price of chicken fell slightly, the price of beef rose, the price of mutton fell, and the price of vegetables and fruits rose. 2) Industry. This week, the operating rate of coking enterprises with various production capacity rose, the price of rebar rebounded, and the inventory continued to accumulate; Copper prices fell and inventories rebounded. 3) Consumption. The year-on-year growth rate of Automobile wholesale rebounded, the year-on-year growth rate of retail fell, and the film box office revenue and film viewing passengers decreased significantly this week. 4) Real estate. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased on a weekly basis, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities decreased on a weekly basis.
Weekly observation of financial markets. 1) Stock market. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3522.57 points, up 0.04% from last Friday; The gem index closed at 3034.68, down 2.72% from last Friday. From the perspective of industry sectors, computer, banking, food and beverage and other sectors led the rise, while pharmaceutical and biological, national defense and military industry and chemical industry led the decline. 2) Bond market. The yield of interest rate bonds declined comprehensively, the term interest rate spread of interest rate bonds widened, and the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed. On January 21, the yields of 1y treasury bonds, 10Y treasury bonds, 1y CDB bonds and 10Y CDB bonds closed at 2.00%, 2.71%, 2.06% and 2.94% respectively, and the week on week ratio changed by - 17bp, - 8bp, - 25bp and - 15bp respectively; This week, the term spreads of 10y-1y treasury bonds and CDB bonds were 71bp and 88bp respectively, and the week on week ratio changed by 9bp and 10bp respectively; The interest rate difference between China and the United States closed at 96bp this week and narrowed by 5bp. 3) Commodities. Commodity prices rose and fell this week. Rebar, thermal coal, soybean oil and white granulated sugar futures prices rose, coke, PTA and cathode copper futures prices fell, cement price index fell, Nanhua metal index rose, and ine crude oil futures prices continued to rise to close at 540.00 yuan / barrel.
Weekly observation of macro policies. 1) Monetary policy. This week, a total of 500 billion yuan was invested in reverse repo, 50 billion yuan was invested in reverse repo due, 700 billion yuan was invested in MLF, 500 billion yuan was invested in MLF due, and 650 billion yuan was invested in the broad open market in the whole week. Dr001 and dr007 closed at 2.05% and 2.11% respectively. In March, the yield of Shibor and 1y interbank certificates of deposit closed at 2.47% and 2.46% respectively. 2) Policy developments. On January 20, the central bank lowered the one-year LPR from 3.8% to 3.7%; Reduce the five-year LPR from 4.65% to 4.6%.
Core view. 1) Pig prices continued to decline, and the price ratio of pig to grain fell. From the perspective of inflation, the fall of seasonal demand superimposed on the excess supply of pork and the mismatch of supply and demand pattern. This week, pig prices continued to fall and the price ratio of pig to grain fell. From the perspective of supply, the operating rates of coking enterprises with various capacity have increased, and the operating rates of small-scale coking enterprises continue to turn against those of super and medium-sized coking enterprises; Rebar prices continued to rise this week and inventories continued to accumulate; The demand for replenishment of inventory by power plants in the Winter Olympic Games may push up the price of thermal coal. In terms of demand, affected by the release of chip production capacity, auto wholesale continued to rise year-on-year this week, but the spread of the epidemic in many places in China led to a sharp decline in film box office revenue and person times this week; The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased month on month, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities decreased month on month. 2) The downward pressure on the economy remains unabated, and the interest rate cut releases the bottom support signal. GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with an average growth of 5.5% in two years. GDP in 2021 increased by 8.1% year-on-year, with an average growth of 5.1% in two years. In terms of industry, benefiting from factors such as the policy of ensuring supply and price stability and the release of automobile chip production capacity, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.3% year-on-year in December, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month. In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in December was 4126.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month; The spread of the epidemic in many places in China has dragged down the decline of catering income, and the slowdown of residents' income growth has also had an impact on social zero. From the perspective of investment, the effect of financial development is obvious, and infrastructure investment has warmed up; The growth rate of real estate investment in December fell sharply by 6 percentage points to - 3.0%. Although the real estate policy has been relaxed recently, problems such as high capital pressure of real estate enterprises and weak willingness to acquire land still exist. The central bank lowered the five-year lpr5bp, which is expected to guide the reduction of housing loan interest rate, promote the repair of real estate demand side and stimulate fixed asset investment.
Risk tip: there is a risk of epidemic spread in China, and the overseas situation has changed more than expected.
