Core view
The economic structure is poor and the central bank acts frequently. The economic data at the end of 2021 showed that the economic structure was poor, the real estate continued to deteriorate, the investment boost was not obvious, and the service industry was still greatly dragged down. Superimposed on the weak information of credit expansion at the beginning of 2022, the market was pessimistic about the economic expectation. In order to prevent the market from "sorrow is greater than heart death", the central bank has made frequent actions. Under the careful care of the central bank, the bond market rose sharply and commodities remained strong, but the stock market remained depressed.
Throw away infrastructure and dry consumption. Since the central economic work conference, A-Shares have been weaker than expected after a short-term rise. However, under the expectation of the introduction of stable growth policy, the old infrastructure index has remained strong, and the overvalued sector has decreased significantly. Standing at the current time point, we judge that with the gradual realization of the steady growth policy, the high point of the old infrastructure sector is approaching, and the opportunity for the layout of consumer stocks has arrived.
US interest rate hikes are expected to rise, and the sharp decline of US stocks deserves attention. Under the catalysis of the rise of US debt, US stocks have recently experienced a significant adjustment, especially last week, especially the NASDAQ. In view of the large decline of A-Shares and Hong Kong shares before, the impact is not large, and Hong Kong shares even rebounded sharply. However, if US stocks continue to adjust significantly, A-Shares and Hong Kong stocks will still be dragged down. The decline of US stocks directly dragged down the US debt, and the US debt also fell sharply, which may force the fed to change its hawkish orientation. At present, it is suggested to closely track the changes of US stocks and respond flexibly.
The strength of RMB reserves space for monetary policy. Recently, the US dollar index has strengthened and the margin of interest rate difference between China and the United States has narrowed, but the RMB exchange rate is still strong. Some market views believe that the central bank seizes the window period of monetary policy and pushes up the exchange rate by strengthening foreign exchange settlement, leaving enough room for the fed to raise interest rates and put pressure on the RMB. However, by comparing the trend of RMB and NT dollar, we prefer to think that net exports are the key force to promote the strength of RMB.
Outlook. From the medium-term perspective, we are still cautiously optimistic about the stock market, and Hong Kong stocks have greater opportunities from the index; A shares are more structural opportunities. It is suggested to withdraw infrastructure and buy consumption; Overall, the undervalued value is still dominant. Treasury bond yields may pick up at the current point and remain low and volatile as a whole. In terms of risk, the risk of epidemic changes and significant adjustment of US stocks deserves attention.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations