Review:
On January 3, "it's the turn of big finance" stressed that the market's expectation of steady growth is insufficient, and big finance is the winner and loser of 2022 investment. January 9 "big finance is the current β》 The market has been greatly adjusted, and there is style switching. Big finance seems to be defensive, but it is actually the best attack. On January 16, "retreat or attack, rely on big finance" stressed that China's interest rate cut is expected to be implemented, and the outside world should pay attention to the upward risk of US debt.
The monetary policy signal of "steady growth" is clear, and more substantive measures are expected after the Spring Festival. From the perspective of political economics, paying attention to the determination and strength of "stable growth" is both an economic and a political issue. Facing the uncertainty of external environment and the rise of the US bond yields, the growth stocks are facing the pressure of "squeezing bubbles". They need to discern the Pearl with their eyes and eliminate the false and retain the truth. You can choose mass consumption and service consumption as the bottom warehouse configuration. The main line of big finance and "stable growth" seems to retreat and defend, but it may actually be the best attack.
The starting gun signal of "steady growth" monetary policy is clear, and more substantive steady growth measures are expected after the Spring Festival. This week, we saw that the interest rates of Omo, MLF and LPR continued to decline, and the significance of monetary easing was very clear. After communicating with market investors, we were actually worried that the existing measures were not strong enough. It felt like "thunder and rain are small", "only flowering and no fruit". The downward pressure on the economy is still large, and we need to wait for more measures. For example, the offline service industry is subject to concerns such as the epidemic, real estate sales and uncompleted auction houses. We have always stressed the need to understand the significance of 2022 for steady growth from a political perspective, not only economic issues, but also political issues. Secondly, from the perspective of time window, the first quarter is the best window period for continuous introduction of policies, stabilizing expectations and "focusing on me".
US bond yields went up, and the overvalued sector continued to "squeeze bubbles". Subject to the concern that the US monetary policy is tightened too fast, the US stock market has made a significant adjustment. The growth of A-Shares with greater relevance also showed a large correction. On the 27th of this month, the Fed's interest rate meeting paid more attention to the interest rate increase and subsequent contraction signals in March, and also had strong guiding significance for the market style. Referring to historical experience, the expected fermentation stage of liquidity inflection point may have great pressure on emerging markets, especially growth stocks. Second, after 2 years of growth, the new energy bull market is approaching the performance period. In this time dimension, growth stocks "squeeze bubbles", eliminate the false and retain the true, and discern the Pearl.
In the short-term "flying across the clouds", 2022 is still calm and waiting for "unlimited scenery on dangerous peaks". Recently, with the continuous decline and adjustment of the market, the voice of "bear market theory" began to ferment in the market, and many investors were pessimistic. We believe that monetary and credit will be relatively loose in 2022, monetary easing has been implemented, and credit expansion is relatively certain. Although the profit is in a downward cycle, the easing of money and credit makes an obvious difference between 2022 and unilateral bear markets such as 2018 and 2011. Various policies and measures to stabilize growth have been continuously introduced, and the policies pay more attention to the economy and the market. Maintain the strategic belief that "flying through the clouds is still calm". Before we can meet the beautiful scene of "infinite scenery on dangerous peaks".
Investment suggestion: use big finance to deal with the "chaotic cloud crossing" and wait for the opportunity to attack again. Mass consumption and service consumption can be configured as bottom warehouse.
First, the first quarter is a good time point for steady growth measures and monetary easing, which helps the economy climb from the bottom. On the whole, the bancassurance sector with Pro cyclical attributes at the bottom of valuation is expected to be favored. At the same time, since 2016, the bank has continuously cleared the asset quality + made a large number of full provisions, with less bad book. In the future, the bank may have an upward roe, and the transfer of asset quality will contribute to the recovery of the valuation of the banking sector. As the interest rate cut is worried about the narrowing of interest rate spread and the decline of performance, we need to pay attention to that the current rate cut is significantly lower than the previous round, represented by 5bp and 10bp, which has a relatively limited impact on bank performance.
Second, the hedging of economic downward pressure and steady growth policies, coupled with the marginal improvement of relevant policies for real estate enterprises, such as domestic bond issuance, the reasonable demand of the real estate market is being met. In 2021, the market worried and ignored the real estate industry and the real estate industry chain. There is no doubt that the transformation of old residential areas and the construction of affordable housing are of great importance in the process of steady growth, and will return to normal from excessive repression. As the urban implementation policy will be strengthened, the relaxation of real estate demand side policy is expected to be seen one after another. In this process, high-quality real estate enterprises and real estate chains have strong alpha attributes, and C-end consumption attributes such as home appliances, home furnishings and consumer building materials are expected to usher in the dual catalysis of valuation repair and performance growth. Secondly, in the process of steady growth, the direction strongly supported by the state, such as water conservancy construction, cold chain logistics, power grid construction and other infrastructure chains, also deserve attention.
Third, on the whole, we can choose the consumption direction with good performance and valuation matching as the bottom warehouse configuration, such as pigs, traditional Chinese medicine, condiments, etc. Secondly, on January 20, the State Council issued the "14th five year plan" for tourism development, and timely launched the action to promote inbound tourism. Due to the epidemic, the service consumption with stressed valuation performance in the past two years is expected to usher in a dilemma reversal, and we can focus on the subdivided fields such as hotels, catering and aviation.
Risk tip: the spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations and the tightening of the Federal Reserve exceeded expectations.
