Summary of key reports
Total research
A new round of trade negotiations between China and the United States: probability, time point and intention -- Part 16 of the series of big country games
Release date: January 18, 2022
Analyst: Gao Ruidong
In preparation for the mid-term election and presidential election, Biden has good reasons to start a new round of trade negotiations with China, use his tariff reduction chips to obtain China's commitment to increase procurement, which is good for the economic interests of voters in swing states and voters of his own party. In the new round of negotiations, Biden is expected to focus on industries with large export volume in blue states and swing states, mainly involving chemical products (including mineral products), transportation equipment and mechanical equipment (including electrical equipment). It is expected that the second to third quarter of this year will be an important window for Biden to open a new round of trade negotiations with China.
How to see the range and rhythm of interest rate cut—— Comments on lowering MLF operation interest rate on January 17
Release date: January 17, 2022
Analyst: Gao Ruidong / Liu Wenhao
The policy interest rate cut by the people's Bank of China is mainly due to the triple consideration of stable expectation, stable growth and wide credit. Considering that the people's Bank of China has successively comprehensively lowered the reserve requirement, lowered the policy interest rate and guided the LPR quotation interest rate to lower, we believe that the credit is expected to turn from stable to wide, which is good for the stock market both at the liquidity level and profit level. At the same time, if the credit easing or economic stabilization is less than expected, the people's Bank of China is expected to cut interest rates again.
The economy is mixed, and steady growth still needs to be made -- Comments on the real economy data in December 2021
Release date: January 17, 2022
Analyst: Gao Ruidong / Zhao gege
With the spread of the epidemic in China and the accelerated shift of overseas monetary policy, China's economic situation has become more severe. The data in December was mixed. On the one hand, infrastructure rebounded and the outlook of the manufacturing industry remained high; On the other hand, real estate and the epidemic have a serious drag on the economy. In this context, the policy continued to make efforts. On January 10, the national Standing Committee accelerated the implementation of investment, the national development and Reform Commission arranged work relief on January 13, and the central bank cut interest rates on January 17. However, both consumption and real estate are relatively weak in the short term, and the policy still needs to improve the pulling effect of investment on total demand.
The carry over amount of government bonds in 2021 is 670 billion, and the net financing of interest rate bonds in 2022q1 is expected to be 2 trillion - review of interest rate bond supply in 2021 and prospect in 2022
Release date: January 15, 2022
Analyst: Zhang Xu / Li Shuchuan
The net financing amount of interest rate bonds in 2021 decreased compared with that in 2020; The net financing amount of national debt is 420 billion less than the arranged central deficit. The amount of new local debt has not been fully used, and the amount carried forward to 2022 is 255.7 billion yuan. The scale of new interest rate bonds in 2022 is expected to be 10.7 trillion. The net financing of 2022q1 interest rate bonds was about 2 trillion yuan, and the net financing from January to march was about 6500, 530 and 810 billion yuan. At the end of the first quarter, the growth rate of interest rate bonds and government bonds was 15.4% and 16.9% respectively. One year's plan lies in spring, and the LPR of Chunjiang water heating is first shown -- Observation of interest rate bonds on January 20, 2022
Release date: January 20, 2022
Analyst: Zhang Xu / Wei Weixiao
In a blizzard in Beijing, we ushered in the first LPR quotation this year. Although the result of the quotation is not unexpected in the market, it makes everyone very excited. No surprise because the LPR over 1-year and 5-year periods decreased by 10bp and 5bp respectively, which basically met the mainstream expectation of the market; We are very excited because this is a rare "double drop" of 1y LPR and "double drop" of 1y and 5Y LPR.
