Key points:
1. Market characteristics: performance driven, valuation contraction. The Shanghai index fluctuated in the range of 3300-3700 points, and the Shanghai index achieved three consecutive positives for the first time since 1994. 2021 is a typical performance driven structural market. The valuation shows a contraction trend, and the index volatility and amplitude converge significantly. Carbon neutralization will become the main investment line of A-Shares in 2021, and concept sectors such as specialized Texin and metauniverse also lead the market in stages.
2. General trend recovery: the box vibrates and the structure is king. The trend of A-Shares in 2021 can be divided into seven stages. The market characteristics of four rises and three falls are remarkable, showing a trend of box shock as a whole. The Shanghai Stock Index stood above 3700 points three times in the whole year, and the selection structure is the key to winning the market.
3, size and style: the size and style of 2021 went through the trend of blue chip bubble to small sector rise to style rebalance, and the small cap style obviously dominated the whole year. The breakup of blue chip bubble after the Spring Festival is the key node of the big and small sector style switching.
4. Resumption of industry style: the industry style in 2021 has experienced four rounds: cycle leading rise, consumption peak → cycle, growth dancing together → cycle solo → consumption rebound and growth resurgence. The expansion of ppi-cpi scissors difference and the decline of risk-free interest rate determine that the cycle and growth in 2021 are better than consumption and finance. There were two key nodes of industry style switching in the whole year, which occurred in mid March and mid September respectively.
5. Industry recovery: in 2021, two-thirds of the industries achieved positive returns, with power equipment, non-ferrous metals, coal, basic chemical industry and steel among the top five. Performance driven and valuation contraction are also the main characteristics of most industries in 2021. Four industries, including power equipment, building decoration, environmental protection and building materials, have achieved significant improvement in valuation and performance throughout the year.
Summary:
1. Market characteristics: performance driven, valuation contraction. The Shanghai index fluctuated in the range of 3300-3700 points, and the Shanghai index achieved three consecutive positives for the first time since 1994. 2021 is a typical performance driven structural market. The valuation shows a contraction trend, and the index volatility and amplitude converge significantly. Carbon neutralization will become the main investment line of A-Shares in 2021, and concept sectors such as specialized Texin and metauniverse also lead the market in stages. In 2021, the Shanghai Stock Index fluctuated in the range of 3300-3700 points, closing up 4.8% for the whole year. The Shanghai stock index achieved three consecutive positives for the first time since 1994. From the perspective of market driving force, 2021 is a typical performance driven structural market, the valuation shows a shrinking trend, and the index volatility and amplitude converge significantly. In addition, with the rapid development of institutionalization, trillion transactions in 2021 have become the market norm, and the annual turnover has reached a record high. Although the index level is calm, the differentiation between industries is significant. Throughout the year, the small cap outperformed the large cap, and the cycle and growth were ahead of consumption and finance. As the key work direction of the policy, carbon neutralization will become the main investment line of the market in 2021, and the concept sectors such as specializing in Texin and yuanuniverse also lead the market in stages.
2. General trend recovery: the box vibrates and the structure is king. The trend of A-Shares in 2021 can be divided into seven stages. The market characteristics of four rises and three falls are remarkable, showing a trend of box shock as a whole. The Shanghai Stock Index stood above 3700 points three times in the whole year, and the selection structure is the key to winning the market. Stage I (1.1-2.10) Mao index bubble: on the one hand, the economy is still at the top of the zone, the policy is set in tune not to turn sharply, the US general election's landing has boosted market risk preference, and under the background of multiple favorable resonance, the market has been characterized by "great beauty", and the index of Mao has gone to bubble. Stage II (2.18-5.7) core asset callback: the market fell into adjustment under the dual repression of the rapid rise of US bond interest rate and the deterioration of micro trading structure, and the core assets leading the market for a long time in the early stage showed undifferentiated callback. Stage III (5.8-7.1) the rise of Ning portfolio: the risk appetite began to pick up under the stable market, and the core assets falling in the early stage began to differentiate. Ning portfolio replaced Mao index as the main line of market trading, and the growth style rose. Stage IV (7.2-7.28) regulation is tighter: policies are opening up to the Internet, education, real estate, Baijiu and other industries, and market risk preferences are obviously frustrated. Stage V (7.29-9.13) dual control of energy consumption: under the background of the continuous increase of the dual control policy of energy consumption and the continuous performance of energy shortage at home and abroad, cyclical stocks are outstanding in this period. Stage VI (9.14-11.10) economic stall and downward: the economy is still in the period of stall and downward, and the overweight of steady growth policy has not yet produced practical results. Stage VII (11.11-12.31) cross year market: on the one hand, the steady growth policy continued to work, the central economic work conference set a more positive tone, and the market's pessimistic expectation of the economy began to repair. On the other hand, the overall shift of liquidity to easing, whether it is the second RRR reduction or LPR interest rate reduction in the year, has opened the space for further easing of policies, and the cross-year market is slowly approaching.
3, size and style: the size and style of 2021 went through the trend of blue chip bubble to small sector rise to style rebalance, and the small cap style obviously dominated the whole year. The breakup of blue chip bubble after the Spring Festival is the key node of the big and small sector style switching. In 2021, the overall style of the small and medium-sized sectors has gone through the trend of blue chip bubble, small sector rising and style rebalancing, which can be divided into five stages. First, from January 1st to February 10th, A shares ushered in the blue chip bubble, and the market style was interpreted to the extreme level. Two, from February 18th to March 10th, the blue chip bubble burst and the market style of "great beauty" which lasted for five years came to an end. Third, from March 11 to June 1, there was no obvious differentiation in the style of large and small cap during this period, and the market style dominated by small cap is still brewing. Fourth, from June 2 to September 13, the small cap style began to rise. In the same period, large cap stocks experienced the second wave of correction in 2021. Fifth, from September 14 to December 31, small cap stocks experienced wide fluctuations, while large cap stocks stabilized at a low level after the early decline, and the market style ushered in rebalancing.
4. Resumption of industry style: the industry style in 2021 has experienced four rounds: cycle leading rise, consumption peak → cycle, growth dancing together → cycle solo → consumption rebound and growth resurgence. The expansion of ppi-cpi scissors difference and the decline of risk-free interest rate determine that the cycle and growth in 2021 are better than consumption and finance. There were two key nodes of industry style switching in the whole year, which occurred in mid March and mid September respectively. 2021 is a big year of style rotation. There is a significant differentiation between the styles of various industries, and the market reflects the two-sided nature. On the one hand, the cost of selecting the wrong industry style at different times is very high, which can not avoid risks, but also cause large losses. On the other hand, in the context of the calm of the index throughout the year, the phased selection of the right style can still obtain high excess returns, and the market profit-making effect is not as poor as that reflected by the broad-based index. From the perspective of the rotation of A-share industry style in 2021, it has experienced four stages: cycle leading rise, consumption peak → cycle, growth dancing together → cycle solo → consumption rebound and growth resurgence. Among them, there are two key nodes of style switching, which occur in mid March and mid September respectively.
5. Industry recovery: in 2021, two-thirds of the industries achieved positive returns, with power equipment, non-ferrous metals, coal, basic chemical industry and steel among the top five. Performance driven and valuation contraction are also the main characteristics of most industries in 2021. Four industries, including power equipment, building decoration, environmental protection and building materials, have achieved significant improvement in valuation and performance throughout the year. In fact, the differentiation among industries in 2021 is not as obvious as that in 2019-2020, but the relatively low proportion of positive income industries will bring investors the feeling of significant market differentiation. From the perspective of the industry, the cycle market in 2021 has basically been deduced to the highest in history. Whether it is nonferrous metals and chemical industry benefiting from the high prosperity of new energy, or coal and oil highly related to energy shortage, they all have high excess returns. The growth industry generally presents a trend of differentiation, with power equipment outshining others, but the performance of TMT sector is general and fluctuates downward throughout the year. Consumption style suffered a correction in 2021. From the perspective of the whole year, only the income of automobile, light industry manufacturing, textile and clothing is positive, while the performance of major consumer industries such as food and beverage, medicine and household appliances is poor. The financial sector performed poorly in 2021, with negative returns from banks, real estate and non banks throughout the year.
Risk tips: the tightening of liquidity is higher than expected, the economic stall is downward, the friction between China and the United States is intensified, and the epidemic situation is worse than expected.
