Last week (1.17-1.21), the stock index opened higher, the Shanghai index rose 0.04% to close at 3522.5 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86% to close at 14029.55 points, the small and medium-sized 100 rose 0.05%, and the gem index fell 2.72%; In terms of industry sectors, computers, banks and food and beverage led the increase; In terms of theme concepts, Lianban index, e-government index and big data index led the increase; The average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1098.87 billion, with the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets up 2.34% over the previous week, including a decline of 1.49% in Shanghai stock market and a rise of 5.08% in Shenzhen stock market; In terms of style, large cap stocks have a comparative advantage, with Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 up 2.54% and China Stock Exchange 500 down 1.48%; In terms of exchange rate, the closing point of US dollar against RMB (CFETS) was 6.3397, down 0.06%; In terms of commodities, icewti crude oil rose 1.18%, Comex gold rose 1.08%, Nanhua iron ore index rose 4.64%, and DCE coking coal fell 3.65%.
Wait for the market index to stabilize. Last week, the on-site funds significantly switched from the high valuation sector to the low valuation sector. In the context of stock capital game and reduced risk appetite, funds tend to embrace the financial and consumer sectors with undervalued value, higher certainty and expected marginal improvement of performance. Previous strong track stocks such as CXO, military industry, semiconductor and new energy generally performed poorly. We believe that the most dangerous period of the market has passed, and there is no significant downward basis for the follow-up index for the time being. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the low willingness of capital transaction, it is difficult for track stocks, as a popular sector, to regain their upward trend in the short term. We expect that before the Spring Festival, the index will mainly go down slightly or fluctuate, and the gem index may tug at 2900-3200 points repeatedly. After the Spring Festival, with the return of funds to the stock market and the restoration of pessimism, the market index is expected to return to the upward trend. In the short term, it is still recommended that the real estate industry chain with steady growth and the subject matter of the annual report forecast exceed expectations.
The end of the policy has initially appeared. The interest rate increase signal released by the Federal Reserve obviously exceeded market expectations. Recently, the yield of 10-year US bonds has started an upward trend, and most of the world's major stock indexes have broken down. The trend of overvalued track stocks and technology stocks is particularly under pressure. In the past, the policy bottom, market bottom and economic bottom of A-Shares usually appeared in turn. The central economic work conference in December 2021 put forward the policy tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and the end of the policy has initially appeared. Under the triple economic pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation, the force of monetary policy has accelerated significantly in the near future. Last week, the MLF operating interest rate was cut by 10 basis points, the open market reverse repo operating interest rate was cut by 10 basis points, the one-year loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) was cut by 10 basis points, and the five-year loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) was cut by 5 basis points. The reduction of interest rate will reduce the financing cost of enterprises and increase the credit demand of enterprises. In 2022, the wide currency will be transmitted to the wide credit, and the growth rate of social finance is expected to hit the bottom and pick up. According to the historical law, it is expected that the stock market will also lag behind the growth rate of social finance for 1-2 months to realize the bottom recovery, and the market may show a V-shaped trend.
Investment advice. It is estimated that in 2022, China's major asset allocation will move from the "stagflation like" stage (economic downturn + upward inflation) to the "recession" stage of Merrill Lynch clock (economic downturn + lower inflation). The recommended asset allocation order is: bonds > stocks > commodities. It is expected that the A-share market will still achieve positive returns in 2022, but the performance of the index may be lower than that in 2021. We are optimistic about the following four sectors in turn: (1) the sectors with booming production and sales. In the next 1-3 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer; (2) New energy and other track stocks. It is expected that the differentiation of new energy track stocks will intensify, the stocks with proven performance will still grow high, and the stocks with false performance will be corrected; (3) Downstream consumption sector. In November, China's PPI rose 12.9% year-on-year and CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year. The scissors gap is at an all-time high. It is expected that the convergence period of this round of ppi-cpi will last from November 2021 to August 2022. The consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the first half of next year. We can pay attention to the food, beverage and household appliance industries; (4) Epidemic damaged sector. At present, the epidemic has spread to India, Africa and other places with the weakest vaccination, which may mean that the global anti epidemic process has come to an end. In 2022, with the control of the global epidemic, there is a momentum for valuation and repair in the epidemic damaged sector, which can be paid attention to: aviation, airport, tourism, hotel, cinema, etc.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, recurrence of the epidemic, fluctuations in overseas markets, deterioration of China US relations and risks in emerging market countries.
