Reviewing the A-share market last week, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. In the first half of the week, there was a rebound trend, and in the second half of the week, the stock index showed a consistent shock and fell. There was no sign of counterattack, and the weak pattern was at a glance.
As stated by Guosheng securities, the risk aversion of funds is heating up, the market hot spots are scattered, and the operation is difficult. The risk aversion of is mainly near the Spring Festival. It is also the best policy to keep waiting and waiting for the opportunity in the near future . In the short term, the periodic adjustment of PV, new energy, lithium battery and other track sectors in last year’s fire is not over. It is suggested to avoid it. Prefabricated dishes, digital economy and other topics hype a large area of ebb tide, and it is difficult to make money without the formation of mainstream hot spots. Short term funds are mainly defensive, which can follow the trend and follow the operation of mainstream funds. Focus on undervalued defense sectors such as, banking, real estate, insurance, food and beverage. At the same time, the first quarter is the release period of the annual report. At present, it is an opportunity for the potential annual report to exceed the expected individual stocks . The performance of the coal sector was relatively strong last week, or it is related to the sharp increase in the annual report performance of individual stocks in the recent sector.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that the market stopped falling and entered shock adjustment in the third week of January. Although the interest rate cut released a positive signal of steady growth, the rapid rise of US bond yields led to the rapid decline of US stocks and suppressed market sentiment. The spread of covid-19 epidemic in China still restricted risk appetite, resulting in twists and turns in the spring market. in the follow-up, the landing of interest rate reduction is the first clear signal of steady growth. The continuous long going north also indicates that the risk appetite begins to improve, and the impact of the rapid upward rise of US bond yield is gradually released. Therefore, we believe that the layout is at the right time .
In terms of allocation suggestions, the institution mentioned that, first of all, the past resumption experience shows that liquidity support is an important condition for the growth style to enter the pull-out valuation stage. After this round of adjustment, the growth style is gradually in place and is about to enter the pull-out valuation stage; Secondly, benefiting from the steady growth of infrastructure, real estate and power grid related construction; Third, pay attention to the opportunities of securities companies under the spring market; Fourth, the main line of consumer price rise with strong certainty.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that last Friday, the market continued to fluctuate repeatedly, the Shanghai index lost its annual line again, and the volume of the two cities could fall back to less than trillion yuan, with a relatively weak performance. However, the continuous net inflow of northbound funds boosted market confidence. With the implementation of the steady growth policy and the release of market selling pressure, it is expected that the market is expected to stabilize and strengthen, and pay attention to the gains and losses of the annual line and the rotation of the sector . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, steel, food and beverage, household appliances, building materials, building decoration and other industries.
As for the future market, Huaxin Securities pointed out that since the beginning of the year, A-Shares have been adjusted continuously, with both external emotional disturbance and internal capital differences. However, there are also some positive signals. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the current A shares and wait for the flowers to bloom in spring. In terms of external market, the FOMC interest rate meeting on January 27 may launch the interest rate increase process. In terms of funds, the wide net inflow of funds from northbound shows that foreign capital is still confident in a shares. At the same time, a large number of internal funds choose wide-based ETF as the waiting mode, and the net inflow continues to be large and is still waiting for the opportunity.
The agency further said that especially during the publication period of the annual report, the sectors and companies with promising performance will be favored by funds again . At the same time, the combination of steady growth is concentrated, and the new and old infrastructure, real estate, finance and other pro cyclical sectors will have valuation and repair momentum, which is also worthy of attention. However, considering that the short-term internal and external shocks still exist, the incremental funds have not yet formed a joint force, and it is difficult to form a resonance between the main line of blue chip growth and steady growth. The “pendulum effect of Pro cyclical and growth” will still be maintained. It is suggested to follow the main line of blue chip growth and steady growth in the short term and grasp the alternating situation.
In addition, combs the market characteristics and Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) before and after the Spring Festival. First, A-share Spring Festival effect is significant, the market rise probability before and after the festival is high , and the Spring Festival red envelope in A-share market in the past ten years has the characteristics of significant low risk and high return. Second, in contrast, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index perform better than Shanghai Composite Index , and small and medium-sized stock indexes such as China Securities 500 and China Securities 1000 are better than heavyweight indexes such as Shanghai Securities 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Third, from the performance of various industries, Shenwan’s primary industries generally closed up around the Spring Festival, and nonferrous metals, electronics, computers and other sectors performed relatively well . Fourth, from the performance of each style index, the main style indexes also have a high probability of closing and rising before and after the Spring Festival , and the style of high P / E ratio is better than low P / E ratio, the style of high price stocks is better than low price stocks, and the style of loss and low profit stocks is better than blue chip stocks.
In the macro aspect, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) research report believes that historically, the Chinese market often experiences the “policy bottom, emotional bottom and growth bottom” . The “policy bottom” has been confirmed between September 30 and December last year, and the “emotional bottom” may be around from the near future to the early part of the first quarter, The “bottom of growth” is expected to appear around the first quarter to the second quarter. In the future, with the continuous introduction of “steady growth” policy details, the possible improvement of forward-looking indicators and the gradual stabilization of China’s growth, market sentiment is also expected to be repaired.
The agency further said that the “steady growth” of is still the main line of the future stage, and the space for the sharp decline of the growth style may be relatively limited, but it may not be in a hurry to copy the bottom , and the previous “steady growth” style may continue until the end of the first quarter.
In addition, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the “policy bottom” has been made clear, the “emotional bottom” is coming, and the “market bottom” is gradually approaching, suggested to continue to focus on the “two low” layout of blue chips to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year .
First of all, the data show that the time point of the greatest downward pressure on the economy has passed, but the dependence on policies is still strong. The local “two sessions” show that there is an obvious trend of stabilizing the economy with investment, and after the monetary force is stronger than expected, the policies of other ministries and local governments are forming a joint force, “policy bottom” has been clear .
Secondly, the emotional catharsis induced by the collapse of high-level groups is coming to an end. The short-term adjustment of the market deviates from both the monetary easing trend and the fundamental trend of policy support. The differentiation of internal and external capital behavior is also evidence, the “emotional bottom” is coming .
Finally, with the continuous improvement of the consensus on the main line of stable growth and the end of emotional venting, it is expected that the market capital will resume inflow and the “bottom of the market” is gradually approaching. It is suggested to stick to the main line of “stable growth” and continue to layout high-quality blue chips around the “two low positions” to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year .
In terms of operation strategy, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) means that grasp the value . The market value is relatively dominant, and the rate of correction of pessimistic expectations is superimposed according to the order of steady growth. It recommends: 1) consumption : accelerate the expected bottom, recommend the direction of pig, household appliances, furniture, social service / tourism, Baijiu and so on with supporting and negative expectations. 2) infrastructure : improve infrastructure investment, help “revitalize infrastructure” exceed expectations in the future, and recommend building materials, construction, power operation and other directions; 3) Finance: securities companies and banks ; 4) consumer electronics .
Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) mentioned that used big finance to deal with the “chaotic cloud crossing” and waited for the opportunity to attack again. Mass consumption and service consumption can be configured as bottom warehouse . First, the first quarter is a good time point for steady growth measures and monetary easing, which helps the economy climb from the bottom. On the whole, the bancassurance sector with Pro cyclical attributes at the bottom of valuation is expected to be favored. At the same time, since 2016, the bank has continuously cleared the asset quality + made a large number of full provisions, with less bad book. In the future, the bank may have an upward roe, and the transfer of asset quality will contribute to the recovery of the valuation of the banking sector. As the interest rate cut is worried about the narrowing of interest rate spread and the decline of performance, we need to pay attention to that the current rate cut is significantly lower than the previous round, represented by 5bp and 10bp, which has a relatively limited impact on bank performance.
Second, the hedging of economic downward pressure and steady growth policies, coupled with the marginal improvement of relevant policies for real estate enterprises, such as domestic bond issuance, the reasonable demand of the real estate market is being met. In 2021, the market worried and ignored the real estate industry and the real estate industry chain. There is no doubt that the transformation of old residential areas and the construction of affordable housing are of great importance in the process of steady growth, and will return to normal from excessive repression. As the urban implementation policy will be strengthened, the relaxation of real estate demand side policy is expected to be seen one after another. In this process, high-quality real estate enterprises and real estate chains have strong alpha attributes, and C-end consumption attributes such as home appliances, home furnishings and consumer building materials are expected to usher in the dual catalysis of valuation repair and performance growth. Secondly, in the process of steady growth, the direction strongly supported by the state, such as water conservancy construction, cold chain logistics, power grid construction and other infrastructure chains also deserve attention.
Third, on the whole, can choose the consumption direction with good performance and valuation matching as the bottom warehouse configuration, such as pigs, traditional Chinese medicine, condiments . Secondly, on January 20, the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for tourism development, and timely launched the action to promote inbound tourism. Due to the epidemic, the service consumption with stressed valuation performance in the past two years is expected to usher in a dilemma reversal, and we can focus on the subdivided fields such as hotels, catering and aviation.
