Speed up the rotation, throw high and absorb low, and reduce the expectation
Market Overview: in the morning papers of last Thursday, Friday and this Monday, we mainly recommended the theme investment opportunities in the digital economy and 5g sector, and in the morning message of last Thursday, “the State Council issued the 14th five year plan for digital economy development”. By 2025, the added value of core industries of digital economy will account for 10% of GDP, Choose the opportunity to layout the two major fields of digital industrialization and industrial digitization “and remind again in the morning message” pay attention to the investment opportunities of big finance, new and old infrastructure, digital economy and other sectors “. In addition, in the morning meeting on Monday, we put forward the optimistic logic focus of” digital economy “. On Wednesday morning, a text message reminded that the rotation of the market sector has accelerated recently, and undervalued financial stocks and Chinese capital construction stocks are relatively more favored by the market. The trend of the market is as we expected. On Monday, the digital economy concept stocks raised the limit, on Tuesday, the digital economy continued to rise sharply, on Tuesday, the big finance pulled up the Shanghai index, on Wednesday, the digital economy continued to rise, and the financial and infrastructure stocks performed strongly. In early Wednesday trading, the three major Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes collectively opened low, the Shanghai index fluctuated narrowly, and the gem index was weak. On the disk, the game sector rose sharply, the large infrastructure sector continued to be active, lithium battery stocks led the decline, and military and semiconductor chip stocks weakened. In the afternoon, the index fluctuated lower, and the gem index fell nearly 3% at one time. Towards the end of the day, the index rebounded. On the disk, the concepts of cloud computing and big data are active again, and the sectors such as scenic spot tourism, building materials and steel are stronger. Throughout the day, in the industry, games, cement building materials, Internet services, household light industry, tourism hotels, engineering consulting, decoration building materials, steel, decoration, communication services, textiles and clothing, banking, engineering construction, real estate and other sectors led the increase, while energy metals, batteries, wind power equipment, non-metallic materials, aerospace, photovoltaic, traditional Chinese medicine Wine and other sectors led the decline; Theme Baijiu, cloud game, electronic license sectors, state-owned assets cloud, digital reading, COVID-19 drugs, digital economy, underground pipe network and other theme stocks rose, blade battery, Saline Lake lithium extraction, sodium ion battery, lithium battery, liquor, rare earth permanent magnet and other theme stocks fell. On the whole, stocks in the two cities rose and fell in half, with cautious market sentiment and poor profit-making effect. The turnover of the two cities was 1065.3 billion yuan, exceeding trillion for 14 consecutive days. As of the closing, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3558.18 points, down 11.73 points, or 0.33%, with a total turnover of 420.763 billion; The Shenzhen composite index reported 14207.19 points, down 184.20 points, or 1.28%, with a total turnover of 644.544 billion; The gem index reported 3075.98 points, down 68.35 points, or 2.17%, with a total turnover of 271.402 billion. The Kechuang 50 index reported 1324.09 points, down 18.27 points, or 1.36%, with a total turnover of 48.703 billion.
Disk comments: first, digital economy concept stocks still led the rise. On Monday, several segments of the digital economy concept broke out strongly. On Tuesday, the digital economy concept stocks continued to rise sharply, and on Wednesday, the digital economy concept stocks still led the rise. However, after the continuous rise, we should pay attention to timely high selling. Since the annual strategy report at the beginning of 2022, we have been recommending investment opportunities in the digital economy industrial chain. The outline of the 14th five year plan takes “accelerating digital development and building a digital China” as an independent chapter. By 2025, the added value of core industries of digital economy will account for 10% of GDP. On October 18, 2021, the Political Bureau conducted the 34th collective learning on promoting the healthy development of China’s digital economy. Xi Jinping when presiding over the study, he emphasized promoting the deep integration of digital technology and the real economy, enabling the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, giving birth to Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) new business forms and new models, and constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding China’s digital economy. On January 12, 2022, the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for digital economy development (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”). At present, the digital economy pays attention to the two fields of digital industrialization and industrial digitization under the digital economy. Digital industrialization provides technologies, products, services and solutions for the development of digital economy, including but not limited to 5g, integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, blockchain and other fields. Industrial digitization refers to the application of digital technology in traditional industries, including but not limited to the Internet of vehicles, online office, online medical treatment, digital government, online entertainment and other fields. The concept of binary universe is active again. It was mainly stimulated by the good news that Microsoft announced that it would acquire Activision Blizzard. As early as the fourth quarter strategy report of 2021, we mainly recommended the concepts of “meta universe” and “industrial machine”. The performance of the fourth quarter can be described as very beautiful. The concept of meta universe increased by 53.79% and the concept of industrial machine increased by 8.26% in the fourth quarter. We can continue to pay attention in 2022. “Meta universe” generally means to create an immersive networked virtual space in which users can have interactive experiences such as cultural, social and entertainment activities, and bring new opportunities in platform ecology, hardware requirements, infrastructure, content form, etc. At present, the concept of “meta universe” is still in the hype stage, and it has risen sharply in the fourth quarter of last year, and the later shock is inevitable. Therefore, it is a relatively dominant strategy to throw high and absorb low and pay attention to the rhythm. Third, undervalued finance such as banking and insurance rose slightly against the trend. On Monday morning, the SMS “pay attention to investment opportunities in big finance, new and old infrastructure, digital economy and other sectors” specially reminded, and on Wednesday morning, the SMS “undervalued financial stocks and Chinese capital construction stocks are relatively more favored by the market” continued to remind. On Tuesday, the big financial sector rose sharply, leading the Shanghai stock index, and on Wednesday, undervalued finance such as banking and insurance rose slightly against the trend. Since the beginning of 2022, we have often reminded in the morning paper that the overall expectation of the make-up of low-end stocks and the valuation repair of undervalued targets is relatively strong. At present, we maintain this view. The valuation of bancassurance is low, and there are opportunities for valuation repair. In addition, the medium and long-term funds in the industry with undervalued and high dividend yield are attractive, and stable investors can still pay attention to it in the future. Fourth, rail transit stocks rose sharply. On Tuesday, China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) and other rail transit stocks rose sharply, and the performance on Wednesday was still stronger than the market. As early as the annual strategy report meeting on January 6, we also specifically mentioned the investment opportunities of some high-end manufacturing industries such as rail transit, which can be paid more attention in the later stage. The weekly morning meeting on January 10 once again reminded that in the face of the downward pressure of the economy in 2022, the efforts of cross cycle and counter cycle adjustment will be strengthened, and infrastructure investment will be carried out moderately in advance. During the counter cycle adjustment of infrastructure construction in the first half of 2022, rail transit may be significantly driven, and intercity rail transit and municipal railways may usher in an outbreak. Fifth, the performance of real estate stocks is strong. On Monday, the central bank cut MLF and reverse repo interest rates by 10 basis points, which benefited the real estate sector. On Tuesday, real estate stocks rose sharply, and on Wednesday, the performance was still stronger than the market. For the real estate sector, we started to remind investors to choose the low layout as early as the weekly Morning Post and the weekly morning meeting on September 27. At that time, the real estate market was jittery. In the strategy report for the fourth quarter of last year, we continued to remind the real estate sector of the opportunity to choose the low layout (many people disputed this at that time), which was also recommended in the follow-up morning post. Affected by the real estate regulation policy, the real estate stock price will be significantly adjusted in 2021. Looking forward to 2022, although “housing without speculation” is the general direction, it will be considered that due to urban conditions, the real estate policy is expected to loosen, the credit risk infection in the real estate field will be gradually controlled, and the real estate market has changed from excessive downturn and pessimism to repair and relatively normalization. Several leading real estate enterprises in China’s A-Shares have cheap valuation and strong dividend certainty. They can choose to pay attention to the future market. Sixth, lithium battery stocks fell sharply.
Since the beginning of the year, the new energy track has led the decline. On Wednesday, the main lithium battery sector of the new energy track fell sharply, and the photovoltaic equipment also fell ahead. We have a reminder in the 2022 annual strategy report: looking forward to the future, although the demand logic of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other industries is still smooth, it will be suppressed by the rapid release of production capacity in 2022 (the capital expenditure of the industry will rise rapidly from 2020 to 2021, and the probability will face the landing of large-scale production capacity in 2022). Moreover, relevant stocks have risen sharply in 2021, and may fluctuate at a high level in 2022, or even fall. For new energy stocks, the short-term choice is to wait and see.
General trend analysis and judgment: on Wednesday, the three major indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen fell. The Shanghai index was supported by the rise of undervalued stocks such as finance, real estate and infrastructure, and the decline was not large. The gem was dragged down by the sharp decline of lithium battery stocks. Recently, the market sector rotates very fast. After a sharp rise, we should evacuate in time and not love war. Since the beginning of the year, undervalued blue chips have been more favored by the market. Among them, both financial stocks led by banks and infrastructure stocks represented by Chinese prefixes have outperformed the three major indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen as a whole, while track stocks with high valuation have been collectively adjusted. The logic behind this is, on the one hand, the expectation and boost of infrastructure and other sectors under the background of steady growth (we recommended investment opportunities in rail transit sector in the 2022 strategy report); On the other hand, with the opening of the monetary easing cycle, the valuation of the undervalued sector increased and the expectation of making up for the rise (we also reminded the undervalued blue chip of the need for valuation repair in the 2022 strategy report, and we often reminded it in the morning paper later). Looking forward to the future, with the clarification of the “steady growth” policy for a shares, it is expected that cross cyclical and counter cyclical policies will be gradually introduced in the future. The early reduction of reserve requirement, the decrease of MLF on Monday and the interest rate of reverse repo by 10 basis points, and the national development and Reform Commission’s statement to accelerate the promotion of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan are evidence. The joint efforts of subsequent policies will promote economic recovery, Boost market confidence. There is no need to worry too much about the short-term adjustment of the market. There is not much room for the future index to fall, and the periodic adjustment is an opportunity for bargain hunting.
