Three major indexes: the Shanghai index fell 0.09%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.06% and the gem index fell 0.32%
Shenwanyi sector: banking, non bank finance and household appliances rose; Correction of media, national defense, military industry and chemical industry
Concept sector: the concepts of Lianban, insurance and securities rose; Online education, UHV, online game concept callback
Transaction and northbound funds: the transaction between the two cities was about 1129 billion yuan, an increase over the previous trading day; The net inflow of funds from Beishang is about 12.576 billion yuan
Hot spot tracking: Comments on the pharmaceutical and biological industry
Pharmaceutical biology is a strategic emerging industry that China focuses on cultivating and developing. It is an important indicator to measure national economic, social development, scientific and technological progress and international strength. In 2021, the pharmaceutical biological sector will open high and go low. Affected by the continuous deepening of volume procurement and warranty negotiation, the release of the guiding principles for clinical research and development of antitumor drugs, and the centralized procurement of IVD in Anhui, the market sentiment of the industry fluctuated sharply. In addition, as of the third quarter of 2021, the pharmaceutical industry had realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 187.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.36%, ranking 15th among the 28 sub industries of Shenwan. The profit growth rate decreased significantly compared with the ranking of 6th in 2020. The decline in relative profit growth led to the poor performance of the pharmaceutical industry in 2021.
After recent adjustments, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical industry has dropped to about 33 times, close to half of the high level in 2020. The overall profitability of the pharmaceutical industry does not match the valuation well in 2022. At present, it has a certain cost performance. We believe that the pharmaceutical industry is gradually entering a structural stage of sector rotation and obvious differentiation of strength and weakness. Considering the aging of population, the rising incidence rate of chronic diseases and the continuous growth of medical expenditure, the value of long-term investment in medical biological sectors has not been weakened. Investors are advised to grasp the investment opportunities of “high quality and real innovation”.
In recent years, under the influence of policies such as consistency evaluation, pharmaceutical anti-corruption, volume procurement and medical insurance negotiation, China’s pharmaceutical sector reform has entered a deep stage. The internal sector differentiation of the pharmaceutical industry is obvious. The profits of the generic pharmaceutical industry are thinning, and the profits of the innovative drug industry are rising. A number of pharmaceutical enterprises with the layout of innovative drugs are gradually coming to the fore. In the standardized and centralized development of the industry, the turnip is removed, and the competition pattern is expected to improve in the future.
Looking forward to 2022, we suggest that investors seize the investment opportunity of “high quality + true innovation” and focus on the subdivided fields such as innovative drugs, innovative therapeutic devices, CXO and innovative traditional Chinese medicine. In the innovative medicine sector, investors are advised to pay attention to two core logics. One is to pay attention to pharmaceutical enterprises with strong certainty, high safety margin and active transition and innovation. Such enterprises have the characteristics of low valuation level, high dividend rate and good growth; The focus is on FIC enterprises with rich R & D pipelines and high expectation of drugs going to sea. With the gradual implementation of enterprise product pipelines, the future profits of enterprises are expected to be greatly improved.
In the field of Innovation Medical Management Co.Ltd(002173) devices, the continuous promotion of consumption upgrading on the demand side drives the rapid expansion and development of the medical device industry. Independent R & D and import substitution accelerate the rise of domestic products and break the monopoly position of import enterprises in the high-end field. It is suggested that investors grasp the upstream equipment and consumables enterprises with good competition pattern; Characteristic enterprises with strong innovation strength and product differentiation in the segment track and downstream equipment leaders with overseas market layout.
In the field of innovative traditional Chinese medicine, driven by policies, the tide of Chinese medicine innovation surged in China. A total of 11 new traditional Chinese medicine drugs were approved for listing in 2021, reaching a new high in recent five years. In the future, with the strong support of policies and the acceleration of the innovation process of traditional Chinese medicine, the value of brand traditional Chinese medicine is expected to highlight. Superimposed with the strong consumption attribute of some traditional Chinese medicine, the demand side is expected to continue to open. In this regard, we recommend two main logical lines. First, innovation led traditional Chinese medicine enterprises. Second, traditional Chinese medicine enterprises with strong consumption attributes and expected to continue to open on the demand side,
Risk tip: the stock market is risky and investment should be cautious
