The central bank lowered the LPR interest rate, making the macro liquidity more abundant, which is conducive to boosting market confidence: after reducing the one-year LPR interest rate by 5 BP on December 20 and the MLF interest rate by 10 BP on January 17, the central bank lowered the one-year loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) by 10 bp to 3.7% and the five-year loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) by 5 BP to 4.6% on January 20.
In combination with the recent statements of Liu Guoqiang, vice president of the central bank, and sun Guofeng, director of the monetary policy department, monetary policy is more active, forward-looking and forward-looking. In the future, it will still support "stable growth" through a combination of open market operation, MLF and other monetary policy tools, and monetary policy may still be further relaxed. At present, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has continuously exceeded trillion yuan, and the macro liquidity is more abundant, which is conducive to boosting market confidence.
After a lapse of 21 months, the five-year LPR interest rate was lowered for the first time, which gave a positive signal to the real estate related sector: with the loosening of regulatory policies in some regions, the real estate related sector has increased by about 5% since the fermentation of this round of easing expectations, maintaining a leading position in the Shenwan industry. The central bank's reduction of the five-year LPR interest rate has a positive impact on the real estate market, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to rebound.
On the one hand, the cost of medium and long-term loans for real estate enterprises will be reduced, which will help boost the investment and willingness of real estate enterprises to start new construction; On the other hand, the reduction of mortgage interest rate is conducive to stimulating reasonable housing consumption demand. With the marginal relaxation of real estate financial policies, the real estate, building materials and building decoration sectors are expected to continue to improve. At the same time, high-quality companies in the post cycle consumption sector of real estate may have a bright performance.
"Wide money + wide credit" aims at "stable growth". It is suggested to pay attention to consumption, infrastructure and undervalued financial sectors: before the subsequent financial data and economic indicators in the first quarter are substantially improved, it is expected that the central bank will maintain the policy tone of total marginal relaxation, and take multiple measures to promote "wide credit" and "stable growth". In this context, it is expected to periodically catalyze the market of undervalued sectors such as banks and securities companies. Combined with the performance express of large listed companies in banks and non bank financial sectors, the leading position in the industry is expected to be further consolidated.
At present, the main line of "steady growth" is logically confirmed and configured in the direction of consensus or better choice. The idea of expanding domestic demand remains unchanged. The required consumer sector with supported performance, high prosperity and expected price increase in the consumer sector deserves attention, and the field of household appliances and furniture in the post real estate cycle also has allocation opportunities; The issuance of special bonds will be accelerated, the approval of projects will be accelerated, and infrastructure, as an important starting point for the underlying economy, will continue to be developed
