Investment suggestion: we judge that the A-share market can still achieve positive returns in the first quarter of 2022, but the index performance may not be as good as that in 2021, and there is a structural market. We recommend focusing on high growth tracks with performance certainty. Recommended configuration: (1) carbon neutralization theme. Nowadays, China is fully promoting the goal of “carbon neutralization”. Clean energy such as scenery is accelerating to replace traditional energy. We can pay attention to new energy, energy storage, energy conservation and environmental protection. (2) New economic theme. High end technology manufacturing industry may be an important driving force for future economic growth. It is suggested to focus on chip semiconductors with accelerated domestic substitution and rapid industry growth, high-end intelligent manufacturing, etc. (3) Emerging consumption themes. At present, China’s PPI is at a high level and CPI rises slowly. The subsequent scissors difference between the two is expected to converge, and the industrial profits will shift from the upstream to the middle and downstream. It is expected that there will be some opportunities in the consumer sector. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the food, beverage and household appliances sectors. (4) Epidemic Damage theme. With the further improvement of vaccination rates in developing countries such as Africa, Mexico and Brazil, the global epidemic is expected to be further controlled. There is a valuation and repair power in the epidemic damaged sector, which can be paid attention to: aviation, airports, tourism, hotels, cinemas, etc.
Focus on hot topics: (1) the development and Reform Commission and other 21 departments jointly issued the “14th five year plan” for public services, and there may be new opportunities for the transformation of the real estate industry. On January 10, the national development and Reform Commission and other 21 departments jointly issued the public service plan for the 14th five year plan. The plan proposes to guarantee urban housing and public rental housing for families with income difficulties, steadily promote the transformation of shantytowns, and actively promote the improvement of housing conditions. Therefore, it is expected that there will be new opportunities for the transformation of the real estate industry. With the superposition of the economic situation of “stable growth”, the real estate industry chain is expected to usher in the valuation recovery. The relevant targets include: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A, etc. (2) The State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of digital economy, and the digital economy industry is expected to accelerate. On January 12, the State Council recently issued the “14th five year plan” for digital economy development. Looking back on the 13th Five Year Plan period, China has achieved positive results in promoting digital industrialization and industrial digitization. However, on the whole, the development of China’s digital economy is not balanced, there are some problems, such as insufficient innovation ability in key fields, and the industrial chain and supply chain are controlled by others. Therefore, during the “14th five year plan” period, the innovation ability of key technologies may become an important development direction. The relevant targets include: Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) , etc. (3) The central bank’s reduction of MLF may boost the stock market of securities companies. On January 17, the people’s Bank of China carried out 700 billion yuan of medium-term loan facilitation operation and 100 billion yuan of open market reverse repurchase operation. We expect that with the interest rate reduction operation of the people’s Bank of China, the loose monetary policy orientation is emerging, and the leading securities companies sensitive to liquidity may benefit. The relevant targets include China stock market news, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) .
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics last week, the top gainers were covid-19 pneumonia detection, in vitro diagnosis, aquatic products, heparin sodium and antibiotics. Affected by the covid-19 epidemic, overseas confirmed cases are rising, and the popularity of epidemic detection related sectors has been further improved. The top five declines were cement manufacturing, professional engineering, China Building Materials Group, large infrastructure central enterprises and other building materials. The main reason is that the current valuation of relevant concept sectors is high, and the recent tightening of funds has led to adjustment.
From January 10 to January 14, among shenwanyi industries, the top five gainers last week were medicine and biology, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, automobile, social services and beauty care; The top five declines were steel, petroleum and petrochemical, building materials, household utilities and public utilities. From the cumulative net inflow last week, the top five cumulative net inflows are medicine and biology, non-ferrous metals, automobiles, beauty care and comprehensive; The top five cumulative net outflows are mechanical equipment, non bank finance, electronics, building decoration and food and beverage.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; Uncertainty about the global epidemic.
