Index
On January 18, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3569.91 points, up 0.80%; Shenzhen composite index closed at 14391.39 points, up 0.19%; The coal industry index closed at 2470.07 points, up 2.49%. The top three companies are: Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) . The non-ferrous metals index closed at 5526.63 points, up 0.31%. The top three companies are: Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Fujian Minfa Aluminium Co.Ltd(002578) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Comments
Today, the aluminum sector rose to the top among the nonferrous sectors. The price center of electrolytic aluminum has continued to move upward in the past half a month. In terms of supply and demand structure, the overall balance is tight, and the destocking effect continues to play a role. At the same time, European aluminum smelters are reducing production due to high energy prices, which is also pushing up aluminum prices. In addition, looking forward to 2022, it is expected that the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum supply will still decline further, the superposition of real estate and infrastructure will gradually exert its power, and the overall electrolytic aluminum will continue to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand. In the long term, the ceiling of 45 million tons capacity of electrolytic aluminum industry determines the supply ceiling, and the output growth of electrolytic aluminum industry with high energy consumption and high carbon emissions under the background of carbon neutralization will be continuously limited. Under the background of carbon neutralization, the logic of electrolytic aluminum supply contraction is strong, the aluminum price center continues to move upward, and the company’s performance is expected to maintain stable growth. Related subjects: Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , day Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
The coal sector rose ahead. With the increase of the benchmark price of the long-term association, the benefits to leading enterprises are more obvious. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) . Secondly, the future capacity increment of the coal industry is limited, and the profitability of coal enterprises is better than before. At present, the elasticity of capacity growth is the elasticity of future performance expectations. It is suggested to pay attention to the target with large capacity growth space in the future. The double carbon goal will be the long-term main line in the future. Some enterprises are transforming the layout of new energy directions such as energy storage, wind power photovoltaic operation and hydrogen energy by relying on the advantages of main business resources or by-products. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading targets of new energy transformation: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , power investment energy, Yankuang energy source, Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) .
Industry dynamics
\u3000\u30001. With regard to the import of Mongolian coal, as for the market rumors that the Sino Mongolian port may be closed in advance, many traders surveyed in Fenwei have not received relevant news. At present, Ganqi Maodu port can still pass the customs normally. 87 vehicles were cleared on the 17th. The price of Mongolian coal has increased slightly in recent two days. At present, the mainstream quotation of Mongolian 5 raw coal is 2000-2050 yuan / ton. (coal resources network)
Company dynamics
Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) (601677. SH): it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will reach 1.85 billion yuan to 1.95 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 780 million yuan to 880 million yuan, an increase of 73% to 82% compared with the same period of last year.
Risk tip: the macro economy is lower than expected, and the coal supply remains high.
