In the fourth quarter, GDP increased by 4% year-on-year, and the economy continued to repair in the short term, but the foundation of economic growth is still not solid, and the efforts to stabilize growth still need to be strengthened.
In the fourth quarter, GDP increased by 4% year-on-year and 1.6% month on month. The month on month growth rate was repaired. On the one hand, due to the relaxation of supply side restriction policies in the early stage, the endogenous growth momentum of macro economy has recovered; On the other hand, due to the acceleration of fiscal expenditure, in addition, the expansion of trade surplus in the fourth quarter also supported economic growth. We revised the GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 5.7%.
In December, the industrial added value increased by 4.3% year-on-year and 0.42% month on month. The year-on-year and month on month growth rates were higher than those in November, but the industrial added value in December was still lower than the average level from 2015 to 2019. After the adjustment of the supply side production restriction policy in the early stage, industrial production has been repaired, but it has not yet returned to the historical normal level.
From January to December, the investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 54454.7 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.9%, an average increase of 3.9% in two years, and the year-on-year growth rate in two years was the same as that in the previous month. In December, fixed asset investment increased by 0.22% month on month, slightly lower than 0.23% in November. In terms of the growth rate of the month, the growth rate of manufacturing investment picked up, the growth rate of infrastructure investment changed from negative to positive, and the growth rate of real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year-on-year, an increase of 9.6 percentage points over the previous month, continuing the weak trend.
In December, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 4126.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, 2.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. In December, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 0.18% month on month, and it has decreased again since July. Affected by the disturbance of the epidemic and the weakening of commercial housing sales, the recovery of consumption is still slow. However, in the fourth quarter, compared with the second quarter, consumer spending increased in the third quarter, indicating that consumption is still recovering slowly.
Economic data in December showed that the economy was still recovering in the short term. The growth rate of industrial production gradually picked up; Although consumption is disturbed by the epidemic, the recovery trend is still on; Infrastructure investment has gradually begun to develop; Trade data released earlier also remained strong. However, the foundation of economic growth is still not solid, consumption is still disturbed by the epidemic, industrial production depends more on external demand, especially the continuous weakness of real estate development investment, which not only affects the growth rate of investment, but also begins to affect the already weak consumption. Considering the impact of real estate related industrial chain on both ends of supply and consumption, as well as the possible impact of overseas monetary policy tightening on China's economy and market. We believe that policies to stabilize growth still need to be strengthened.
Risk tip: the global epidemic rebounded, the policy was less than expected, and the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve accelerated.
