Key investment points:
Xi Jinping : continuously strengthen, optimize and expand China’s digital economy
The second issue of Qiushi magazine, published on January 16, published the important article of the president Xi Jinping , “constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding China’s digital economy”. The article emphasizes that we should give full play to the advantages of Beijing Vastdata Technology Co.Ltd(603138) and enrich application scenarios, promote the deep integration of digital technology and the real economy, enable the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, give birth to Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) new business forms and new models, and constantly strengthen, optimize and expand China’s digital economy. The paper points out that developing digital economy is a strategic choice to grasp the new opportunities of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform. The healthy development of digital economy is conducive to promoting the construction of a new development pattern, a modern economic system and a new national competitive advantage. The article points out that we should strengthen the key core technology research, speed up the construction of new infrastructure, promote the integrated development of digital economy and real economy, promote the development of digital industry in key fields, standardize the development of digital economy, improve the digital economy governance system, and actively participate in the international cooperation of digital economy. We should do a good job in the top-level design and system and mechanism construction of China’s digital economy development.
Previously, on January 12, the State Council issued the 14th five year digital economy development plan, which made it clear that by 2025, the added value of core industries of digital economy will account for 10% of China’s GDP, and the data factor market system will be preliminarily established. In addition to accelerating the construction of new infrastructure, the article also mentioned the need to promote the development of digital industry in key areas, focus on key areas such as integrated circuits, new displays, communication equipment and intelligent hardware, and speed up the forging of long sectors and supplement short sectors. On the whole, it is good for the relevant sectors. Export toughness still exists, and import growth rate has dropped
Exports remained resilient and import growth slowed down. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in December 2021, the export was 20.9% year-on-year, the former value was 22.0%, the import was 19.5% year-on-year, the former value was 31.7%, and the trade surplus was 94.46 billion US dollars, the former value was 71.71 billion US dollars.
The export amount reached a new high. In December, the export value reached 340.5 billion U.S. dollars, reaching a record high, maintaining the scale of more than 300 billion U.S. dollars for four consecutive months, and the export toughness is still. In addition, there may also be the early spring festival in 2022, which is the factor that exports run ahead of schedule.
The export of high-tech products performed well. Integrated circuits still maintain a high growth rate of more than 20%, and the growth rate of electromechanical products is close to 20%, which forms a certain support for exports. In addition, high-tech products continue to have a high export growth rate, reflecting the upgrading of China’s industrial chain and the increase of exports of high value-added products. Epidemic prevention related supplies still maintain a relatively high growth rate, which may be related to the obvious rebound of overseas epidemic affected by virus strains. The growth rate of mobile phone export returned to high growth after the base dropped significantly. The monthly growth rate fluctuated greatly, but the overall trend of export amount in the second half of the year was upward. The export growth rate of household appliances in the downstream of the real estate continued to decline, and the export growth rate of furniture changed from positive to negative.
The import growth rate dropped, and some products were significantly dragged down. The import amount in December was US $246 billion. Although the growth rate was significantly lower than that of the previous month, the absolute value was still at an all-time high, only lower than the record high of 253.8 billion yuan in November. In terms of specific products, the growth rate of import amount and quantity of crude oil, soybean, unwrought copper and copper products increased compared with the previous month; The obvious drag is iron ore and its concentrate, automobile and automobile chassis. The volume and price of both fell, and the growth rate of amount and quantity turned negative. On the whole, the measures to stabilize growth in December have not yet fully taken effect, and the pull on domestic demand remains to be further observed.
On the whole, short-term overseas demand may still support exports, and new strains may still disturb the recovery of overseas supply. The absolute value of exports may still be high in 2022. However, due to the impact of the rising base and the gradual shift of overseas demand for commodities to consumption, the overall export growth rate may be in a downward trend, but the decline rate may be relatively slow. In 2022, it may be necessary to track domestic demand more closely. China’s measures to stabilize growth are gradually promoted, the drag on real estate is reduced, the growth rate of new and old infrastructure investment is expected to rise, and domestic demand may gradually improve. The driving effect of trade surplus on GDP may be relatively weakened in 2022.
The national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on doing a good job in promoting consumption in the near future. The notice stressed that on the premise of accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control, seize the opportunities of traditional festivals such as the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, adapt to the changes of residents’ consumption habits and the needs of improving quality and upgrading, tap consumption hotspots and growth points, and further release residents’ consumption potential, We will promote a stable start to the economy in the first quarter.
The notice proposes 10 measures. First, take measures to meet residents’ festival consumption needs according to local conditions; second, create an upgraded version of online festival consumption; third, effectively expand county rural consumption; fourth, take advantage of the trend to expand residents’ ice and snow consumption; fifth, vigorously improve the supply of cultural, tourism and leisure services; sixth, further stimulate the new vitality of smart retail, The seventh is to actively develop green consumption, the eighth is to promote the healthy development of housing consumption, the ninth is to implement the relief policies for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, and the tenth is to make every effort to ensure the basic living consumption of people in need and other groups.
On the whole, the policy mainly reflects the recent important measures to promote consumption. We believe that policies to promote consumption will continue to be introduced and implemented in the future, and the overall consumption may maintain a recovery trend in 2022. The financing balance decreased. On January 13, the balance of A-share financing was 1705.233 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 546 million yuan; The balance of margin trading was 1814.765 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 2.369 billion yuan. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1595.701 billion yuan, an increase of 1.277 billion yuan month on month.
Land stock connect net inflow, Hong Kong stock connect net inflow. On January 14, the net purchase transaction of land stock connect on that day was 282 million yuan, including 59.051 billion yuan of purchase transaction and 58.769 billion yuan of sales transaction, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of 164.8226 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $3.771 billion on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $14.294 billion and a sale transaction of HK $10.523 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2206.133 billion.
Money market interest rates fluctuated. On January 14, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor overnight interest rate was 2.2090%, down 0.90bp, Shibor one week was 2.2130%, up 1.10bp. The weighted interest rate of pledged repo of deposit institutions was 2.2013% overnight, down 1.29bp and 2.2068% a week, up 1.37bp. The 10-year yield to maturity of China national debt was 2.7935%, up 0.77bp.
U.S. stocks were mixed, while European stocks fell. On January 14, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 35911.81 points, down 0.56%; The S & P 500 index closed at 4662.85 points, up 0.08%; The NASDAQ index closed at 14893.75, up 0.59%. European stock markets, French CAC index closed at 7143.00 points, down 0.81%; Germany’s DAX index closed at 15883.24 points, down 0.93%; The FTSE 100 index closed at 7542.95, down 0.28%.
In the Asia Pacific market, the Nikkei index closed at 28124.28 points, down 1.28%; The Hang Seng Index closed at 24383.32, down 0.19%.
The dollar index rose. On January 14, the dollar index rose 0.29% to 94.8679. The euro fell 0.35% against the dollar to 1.1455. The dollar rose 0.03% against the yen to 114.1700. Sterling fell 0.20% against the dollar to 1.3706. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3435, up 0.26%. The spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3645, up 0.10%. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3677, depreciating by 0.21%.
Gold fell, crude oil rose and copper fell. On January 14, Comex gold futures fell 0.26% to close at US $1817.30/oz. WTI crude oil futures rose 3.15% to close at US $84.27/barrel. Brent crude oil futures rose 2.81% to close at US $86.47/barrel. COMEX copper futures fell 1.78% to close at US $4.4310/lb. LME copper three-month futures fell 2.32% to close at US $9732 / ton.
