Abstract
Global semiconductor manufacturers continue to expand advanced production lines
Sumitomo Metal Mine began to mass produce wafers used by a new generation of power semiconductors, which are made of silicon carbide. The demand of the new generation of power semiconductors for pure electric vehicles (EV) is expected to expand. Sumitomo mine wants to seize the market of leading enterprises such as wolfspeed, and is expected to produce 10000 tablets per month in 2025. Compared with ordinary silicon-based semiconductors, the new generation of power semiconductors can greatly reduce power loss.
Navitas semiconductor (NASDAQ: nvts) announced the opening of a new electric vehicle (EV) design center to further expand to the higher power gallium nitride market. Compared with traditional silicon solutions, the charging speed of gallium nitride based on vehicle charger (OBC) is estimated to be 3 times faster and energy saving is as high as 70%.
Hon Hai pointed out on its official website that in 2022, the existing market scale of the three future industries (electric vehicle, digital health, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) ) is huge, with the scale of each industry of more than US $3 trillion, and the compound annual growth rate is more than 20%. The three core technologies (artificial intelligence, semiconductor and new generation communication) can be used as the core competitiveness of the group in developing the three industries.
Global energy prices remain high
At present, the shortage of natural gas in Europe is mainly due to the sharp reduction of supply in Russia, the main importer on the supply side, affected by political factors, the continuous resumption of work and production on the demand side and the increase of heating required by extreme weather under La Nina phenomenon. We expect that the phenomenon of supply less than demand will continue, and the EU may consider suspending environmental protection restrictions.
Recently, the import of liquefied natural gas in the United States has been suspended, and the price of natural gas has increased. The import supply came from a fleet of 20 LNG ships in the United States, which began sailing in mid and late December. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg data, LNG imports in northwest Europe jumped to the highest level since December 2019. However, subject to fierce competition in Asia, Europe may face the risk of shortage of natural gas supply again. According to the Chicago Stock Exchange (CME), the futures price of the benchmark liquefied natural gas price (JKM) of Japan and South Korea in recent months has reached US $30.505 / million BTH (about 90.26 euros / MWh). The monthly oil inventory report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday also raised the expected crude oil price in New York by nearly $5 in 2022. WTI crude oil price is expected to be USD 71.32/barrel in 2022, compared with USD 66.42/barrel previously; Brent crude oil price is expected to be US $74.95/barrel in 2022, compared with us $70.05/barrel previously.
Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (IEA) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.14 million barrels in the past week. In terms of new supply, at this stage, there are only two countries in the world – Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The current oil production can be higher than the level before the epidemic really impacted demand in January 2020. It is expected that the short-term supply-demand gap still exists and there is still room for prices to rise. However, in the long run, according to the EIA’s prediction of the global crude oil supply and demand balance table, the crude oil production is expected to increase to 10093 million barrels / day in 2022, and the demand is expected to increase to 10046 million barrels / day. In 2022, the global crude oil supply surplus will reach about 4.7 million barrels / day. In 2022, with the increasing inflationary pressure, the Fed’s actions of shrinking the table and raising interest rates will continue to tighten liquidity, and the financial premium of crude oil will fall somewhat. Superimposed on the expectation of weakening the marginal of crude oil fundamentals, there is a downward expectation in the oil price operation center in 2022.
Weekly meso data
Upstream, the prices of crude oil and natural gas in the United States increased and the inventory level decreased. In terms of coal prices, the futures prices of coking coal and thermal coal fell and the coke price rose. Power coal prices in Newcastle and Richard rose sharply, power coal prices in Europe fell, and the number of ships at anchorage decreased significantly. LME copper and zinc nonferrous futures prices fell, LME aluminum, lead, tin and nickel futures prices rose, Comex gold prices rose, and Comex silver and copper prices fell slightly. The price of lithium metal rose sharply, the price of tungsten concentrate in Jiangxi rose, and the BDI index fell. In the middle reaches, rebar futures and spot prices rose, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) Brazilian Caracas powder car sector price and Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) Australian Pb ore car sector price increased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate of steel mills increased significantly. Polysilicon material prices rose slightly. Downstream, the transaction area of commercial housing in the top ten cities fell sharply. The average price of white feather chicken fell, and the wholesale price index of vegetables in Shandong fell.
Risk tip: policy risk
