Key points:
Market performance this week: the major indexes performed poorly this week. The Shanghai index fell 1.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.35%, and the gem index rose 0.73%. The net inflow of northbound funds this week was 7.445 billion yuan. Since December 30, 2021, the daily turnover of funds has exceeded RMB 1 trillion for 16 days, and the investor sentiment is relatively optimistic.
The double carbon policy stimulates supply and demand, and the new energy industry chain is expected to improve. The downward trend of new energy vehicle index has not changed since December 3, 2021. In December 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicle enterprises generally improved, with a monthly sales volume of 531000 vehicles, an increase of 114% month on month. The expectation of future sales growth is optimistic. The demand for new energy vehicles continues to be strong, the overall market performance is in short supply, and the trend of capacity expansion is accelerated. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 6 million in 2022. Due to the demand for the continuous expansion of the production capacity of new energy vehicles and the unstable impact of the global epidemic on the upstream raw material supply, the upstream raw material supply and demand gap continues to exist. It is suggested to bargain hunting layout. In addition, the policy side will further stimulate both ends of supply and demand, reduce costs and boost demand, so as to further expand the profits of enterprises in the new energy industry chain in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises with obvious scale effect, R & D advantage and brand effect.
The mood fluctuation does not decrease, the cycle is good, and the performance of food and beverage may accelerate the release. Following the continuous rise on November 15, 2021, the food and beverage index began to decline for three weeks from the last week of 2021. We believe that the recent decline in the industry is due to a normal correction. Subdivision industry, Baijiu, despite the recent decline, but the performance of the sector is still robust. Under the expectation of consumption upgrading and the recovery of macro-economy, Baijiu, especially the high-end and second end products, has a significant benefit from earnings performance, and is still operating in the boom cycle. Baijiu sector business is expected to usher in sales and revenue in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leading enterprises with brand advantages.
Suggested allocation: investor sentiment is relatively optimistic, but the differentiation between the performance of the index and individual stocks is extremely obvious. In our annual strategy for 2022, we emphasize the investment strategy of emphasizing individual stocks and neglecting the index. The performance of the index is contrary to the market sentiment reflected by the investor sentiment indicators, which also confirms our view. Near the Spring Festival, investors' desire to be safe will be strengthened and the index will be sorted out. At this time, it is a period of both attack and defense. They hold a conservative strategy for industries with large increase in the early stage. However, it is a better layout time point for industries and stocks with large callback range, high prospect and expectation of new trends of the two sessions in the early stage of this shock period. The structural market will focus on double carbon, meta universe and consumption. With the expectation of more new trends in the two sessions and the impact of relatively loose monetary policy, market sentiment will be further stimulated and optimistic about manufacturing and consumer enterprises with brand advantages.
It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) optimistic about the consumption sector with good performance stability and cyclical and seasonal advantages, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances and food and beverage; 2) Optimistic about the new energy industry chain with large correction range and expected growth potential under the double carbon policy; 3) Optimistic about investment related sectors with growth trend, such as real estate, construction and transportation.
Risk tips: 1) risk of continuous and repeated epidemic; 2) Policy adjustment risk; 3) The risk of the Fed raising interest rates in advance.
