Key investment points:
Central bank: sufficient force, accurate force and forward force
On January 18, the central bank held a press conference on 2021 financial statistics, mainly including the following:
Key points:
\u3000\u30001. At present, the economy is facing triple pressures. “Stability” itself is the biggest “advance”. Before the downward pressure on the economy is fundamentally relieved, advance should serve stability. Policies that are not conducive to stability should not be introduced, and more policies that are conducive to stability should be introduced to promote stability. In short, the current key goal is stability, and the policy requirement is force. Generally, it continues the statements of a series of meetings of the central bank since the central economic work conference. The key work in 2022 is to stabilize growth, and more positive policies will be introduced in the policy direction.
\u3000\u30002. We should expand the monetary policy toolbox to keep the total amount stable and avoid credit collapse. This statement clearly defines the direction of overall monetary and political easing throughout the year.
\u3000\u30002. Specifically, the force is exerted from three aspects: sufficient force, accurate force and forward force. The corresponding easing is not over, and there is still room; The total amount and structural tools are used together to generate force; Advance the time point of policy force and do a good job in expectation management.
\u3000\u30003. After the two RRR reductions in 2021, there is less room for further adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, but there is still some room for use according to the economic and financial operation and the needs of macro-control. The central bank mentioned its views on the RRR reduction from both positive and negative aspects. The maximum monthly maturity of MLF from February to August is no more than 200 billion yuan. It is expected that the possibility of replacing MLF by short-term RRR reduction will decrease, but there is still some room for RRR reduction. It may still be adjusted according to the issuance of special bonds and the actual operation of the economy in the future.
4. In 2021, China’s macro leverage ratio was 272.5%, falling for five consecutive quarters, creating space for future monetary policy. The lower the leverage, the greater the space. From the perspective of macro leverage ratio, it will not become a constraint on the strength of monetary policy this year.
\u3000\u30005. With regard to the purchase policy, one of the core features of real estate is regionality. Under the management framework of long-term mechanism of real estate, it is more to implement the territorial responsibility of the urban government and implement real estate regulation according to the local market situation. From the perspective of expression, since urban policy may be the focus of the next real estate regulation, the urban regulation with large increase may still be tight, while the urban policy regulation with large decrease and low pressure on house price increase may be marginal relaxed, so as to promote the long-term and stable development of the whole real estate industry. In general, the interest rate cut on January 17 does not mean the end of easing. Monetary policy will remain relatively loose in 2022, and it is still possible to cut interest rates and reserve requirements. A series of recent statements and practical operations of the central bank are conducive to improving market expectations and confidence and risk appetite.
The financing balance increased. On January 17, the balance of A-share financing was 1705.319 billion yuan, an increase of 4.407 billion yuan month on month; The balance of margin trading was 1815.323 billion yuan, an increase of 5.358 billion yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1595.315 billion yuan, an increase of 3.456 billion yuan month on month.
Net inflow of land stock connect and Hong Kong stock connect. On January 18, the net purchase transaction of land stock connect on that day was 2.335 billion yuan, including 56.692 billion yuan of purchase transaction and 54.357 billion yuan of sales transaction, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of 165.2268 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $2.215 billion on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $14.467 billion and a sale transaction of HK $12.252 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2209.804 billion.
Money market interest rates fell. On January 18, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor overnight interest rate was 1.9210%, down 19.20bp, Shibor one week was 2.0880%, down 9.50bp. The weighted interest rate of pledged repo of depository institutions was 1.9225% overnight, down 16.38bp and 2.0719% a week, down 9.41bp. The 10-year maturity yield of China national debt was 2.7415%, down 4.45bp.
European and American stock markets fell. On January 18, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 35368.47 points, down 1.51%; The S & P 500 index closed at 4577.11 points, down 1.84%; The NASDAQ index closed at 14506.90, down 2.60%. European stock markets, French CAC index closed at 7133.83 points, down 0.94%; Germany’s DAX index closed at 15772.56 points, down 1.01%; The FTSE 100 index closed at 7563.55, down 0.63%. In the Asia Pacific market, the Nikkei index closed at 28257.25 points, down 0.27%; The Hang Seng Index closed at 24112.78, down 0.43%.
The dollar index rose. On January 18, the dollar index rose 0.49% to 95.7298. The euro fell 0.69% against the dollar to 1.1328. The dollar fell 0.03% against the yen to 114.5800. Sterling fell 0.37% against the dollar to 1.3596. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3513, depreciating by 0.07%. The spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3600, depreciating by 0.14%. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3521, up 0.12%.
Gold fell, crude oil rose and copper fell. On January 18, Comex gold futures fell 0.21% to close at US $1813.40/oz. WTI crude oil futures rose 1.92% to close at US $85.89/barrel. Brent crude oil futures rose 2.36% to close at US $88.57/barrel. COMEX copper futures fell 0.62% to close at US $4.4035/lb. LME copper three-month futures fell 0.82% to close at US $9677 / ton.
