Key investment points
Industrial high frequency periodicity observation. 1) Inflation. This week (01.10 - 01.14, the same below) pork prices fell to 22.5% 25 yuan / kg, the price ratio of pig to grain dropped to 5.29, the price of chicken rebounded slightly, the price of beef and mutton increased, the price of vegetables decreased and the price of fruit increased. 2) Industry. This week, the operating rate of coking enterprises with various production capacity rose, the price of rebar rebounded, and the inventory continued to accumulate; Copper prices rose and inventories continued to fall. 3) Consumption. The year-on-year growth rate of Automobile wholesale and retail picked up, and the film box office revenue and film viewers decreased significantly this week. 4) Real estate. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased on a weekly basis, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities decreased on a weekly basis.
Weekly observation of financial markets. 1) The stock market. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3521.26 points, down 1.63% from last Friday; The gem index closed at 3119.41, up 0.73% from last Friday. From the perspective of industry sectors, only medicine and biology, electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, automobile and rose, while other sectors fell. 2) Bond market. The yield of interest rate bonds declined in an all-round way, the term interest rate spread of treasury bonds widened, and the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed. On January 14, the yields of 1y treasury bonds, 10Y treasury bonds, 1y CDB bonds and 10Y CDB bonds closed at 2.17% and 2.5% respectively 79%, 2.31% and 3.5% 09%, the cycle to cycle ratio changed by - 6BP, - 2bp, - 0.3bp and - 1bp respectively; This week, the term spreads of 10y-1y treasury bonds and CDB bonds were 62bp and 78bp respectively, and the week on week ratio changed 3bp and - 0.5bp respectively; China US interest rate spread closed at 101bp this week, narrowing 4bp. 3) Commodities. Commodity prices rose and fell this week, rebar, PTA, cathode copper, soybean oil and white granulated sugar futures prices rose, coke, thermal coal and soybean meal futures prices fell, cement price index fell, Nanhua metal index rose, and ine crude oil futures prices continued to rise to close at 525.10 yuan / barrel.
Weekly observation of macro policy. 1) Monetary policy. This week, a total of 50 billion yuan was invested in reverse repurchase in the open market, 40 billion yuan was due for reverse repurchase, and 10 billion yuan was invested in the broad open market in the whole week. Dr001 and dr007 closed at 2.20% and 2.21% respectively. In March, Shibor and 1y interbank certificate of deposit yields closed at 2.50% and 2.60% respectively. 2) Policy developments. In December 2021, M2 was + 9.0% year-on-year and M1 was + 3.5% year-on-year; Social finance increased by 2.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 650.8 billion yuan year-on-year; The stock of social finance increased by + 10.3% year-on-year. CPI was + 1.5% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; PPI was + 10.3% year-on-year, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month.
Core view. 1) Pig prices continued to decline, and the price ratio of pig to grain fell. From the perspective of inflation, the fall of seasonal demand superimposed on the excess supply of pork and the mismatch of supply and demand pattern. The price of pork continued to fall this week and the specific price of pig grain fell this week. From the perspective of supply, the operating rates of coking enterprises with various capacity have increased, and the operating rates of small-scale coking enterprises are more than those of medium-sized coking enterprises; Rebar prices rebounded this week, and inventories continued to rise; In terms of demand, affected by the release of chip production capacity, auto wholesale and retail rebounded year-on-year this week, but the spread of epidemic in China led to a sharp decline in film box office revenue and person times this week; The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities rose month on month, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities fell month on month. 2) The price index both fell, and the growth rate of social finance improved. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI and CPI decreased in December 2021. The year-on-year growth rate of food prices changed from positive to negative due to the weakening of seasonal consumer demand and the improvement of supply. The year-on-year growth rate of non food prices fell due to the narrowing of the rise of energy prices such as oil prices. Food and non food jointly led to the year-on-year decline of CPI in December; The policy of ensuring supply and price stability and the decline of international crude oil prices led to the year-on-year decline of PPI, the scissors gap between PPI and CPI continued to narrow, and inflation expectations eased. In December 2021, the stock of social finance increased by 10.3% year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, adding 2.37 trillion yuan of social finance, an increase of 650.8 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, the formation of RMB loans was dragged down, the performance of medium and long-term loans was poor, the demand for physical financing was weak, and the financial postposition effect appeared. Corporate bonds and government bonds formed a certain support for social finance, and the overall social finance data showed a slow repair state.
Risk tip: there is a risk of epidemic spread in China, and the overseas situation has changed more than expected.
