Main points
Steady growth is still focused on investment
In December, the economy operated smoothly, industrial production continued to accelerate, and fixed investment remained stable, but consumption was relatively low, which dragged down the overall economic growth. In addition to the impact of the epidemic, the consumption downturn is more important. The more important is that the consumption inhibition effect of high housing prices in the later stage has begun to appear, and the adverse effects of the property market bubble on both ends of supply and demand have already emerged. The two-year average growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter was 5.2%, which was stable compared with the third quarter, but still lower than that in the first and second quarters, which also shows the pressure of the current economic operation.
Under the triple pressure of "demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation", the central economic work conference set the tone, and the policy turned to a positive attitude. Fiscal policy requires to ensure the intensity of expenditure and speed up the progress of expenditure. In terms of monetary policy, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates came one after another. As the first driving force of economic growth, investment still has room for development, and the focus of future economic growth is still investment. Under the condition that the investment growth rate can still be guaranteed, the economic power can still be maintained, and the consumption is stable. Even if the contribution of net exports to economic growth decreases, the macroeconomic operation will continue to be stable in 2022, but the growth rate may decrease slightly.
The interest rate cut came as scheduled, and the policy shift was loose
We have always stressed the necessity of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates. The insufficient growth capacity of China's basic currency is the basic problem of China's monetary system. To maintain the stability of policy interest rate and monetary growth, RRR reduction is still an indispensable option in the future. Under the monetary endogenous system, the core problem of China's current monetary environment lies not in loose quantity, but in the excessively high price, that is, the financing interest rate of small and medium-sized enterprises is high. Only by reducing the interest rate can we stimulate the credit demand of enterprises. After the price data was released in December, the price inflection point officially arrived. At that time, we suggested that the time for interest rate reduction was further ripe, and there might be a possibility in the first quarter. And the final interest rate cut came as we expected.
After the RRR was lowered in December and the LPR quotation was lowered, the interest rate was cut immediately, which fully responded to the demand for steady growth in the central economic work conference, and the LPR in January may be lowered again. In choosing the time point, we should also consider the capital gap in January, and both reverse repurchase and MLF have given support in terms of volume and price. The amplitude of 10bp also exceeded the amplitude of each change before the epidemic (19 years), which was equivalent to the decline in the early stage of the epidemic. Monetary policy has changed from quantitative regulation to price regulation. Under the framework of modern monetary policy, the operation of policy interest rate and market interest rate has become a more intuitive means to observe the monetary policy orientation of the central bank. Therefore, in fact, the policy significance of RRR reduction has been neutral, but the reduction of policy interest rate also marks that the pointer of monetary policy has turned loose.
There is still a double drop, and the price is down
Structural adjustment and industrial upgrading are more important tasks for economic development at this stage, so stabilizing macro-control will not change. The direction of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates remains unchanged, and it is still possible during the year. Commodity prices will enter the downward trend under the background of high volatility in the era of debt economy. As a large manufacturing country, China's industrial economic operation will tend to improve.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation is repeated, and inflation is higher than expected.
