Steel: the rebound of steel and iron ore prices since December has been driven by multiple factors. First, the phased improvement of actual demand after the loosening of Q4 real estate financing policy; second, the steady growth policy drives the market expectation stronger; third, the short-term recovery of industrial chain inventory after price overshoot; fourth, the winter storage of raw materials; and fifth, the expected production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games supports the processing fee. Iron ore prices have risen from a minimum of $87 to a maximum of $131, an increase of 50%. We believe that the current black price has implied a high demand expectation. At the same time, many factors driving the price rebound cannot be sustained. The failure probability of this round of oversold rebound is high, and the medium-term price may weaken again. From a longer time perspective, the real estate cycle is still in a spiral downward process, and the steel supply policy will also face great uncertainty after the first quarter. It is suggested to look for opportunities in the growing new material industry and pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , etc.
Coal: this week, coal prices continued to rise, approaching the Spring Festival holiday, coupled with the completion of the supply guarantee task, some coal mines stopped production and the supply side tightened slightly; Chemical, coking and other terminal enterprises began to replenish their warehouses in stages before the Spring Festival, and the demand picked up, providing support for the rise of coal prices. Recently, the Ministry of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia issued the latest announcement, saying that after confirming the completion of China’s market obligation (DMO), 37 coal ships with a coal load of about 1.8 million tons will be released as soon as possible, of which 17 will be sent to China, accounting for 46% of the total. With the completion of DMO of Indonesian coal enterprises, it is expected that the international coal supply will improve, We still need to pay attention to the follow-up measures of the Indonesian government. In the medium and long term, under the background of lack of planned investment, the constraints on the coal supply side are strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. The increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term association also ensures the ability of the industry to maintain high profitability. Under the dual carbon goal, coal enterprises urgently need to transform, invest in energy Yankuang, Shenhua, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and others mainly focus on new energy operation and hydrogen energy. The coal industry has the advantages of strong cash flow and rich land resources in new energy operation, and has the ability and willingness. The transformation of new energy direction is conducive to improving the overall sector valuation level (at present, the PE valuation is 5-6 times), and the coal assets need to be repriced, Continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector. Thermal coal stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Nonferrous Metals: the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China reached 3.5 million in 21 years; Indonesia plans to levy taxes on ferronickel exports; BYD won the quota of 80000 tons of lithium metal in Chile; In the 21st year, the output of neodymium, iron and boron in China reached 240000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 25%; The prices of lithium carbonate and praseodymium neodymium oxide continued to reach new highs; The annual rate of CPI in the United States in December reached the highest since 1982; The Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates continues to heat up. The demand boom continued to rise, and the price transmission was smooth. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 3.5 million in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, and the market penetration rate was 13.4%, including 500000 in a single month in December. The passenger Association expects that the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 is expected to exceed 6 million, with a penetration rate of about 22%. The end of the year is approaching, and the price of lithium carbonate is accelerating upward again. This week, the limit of lithium carbonate futures in Wuxi electronic disk fell for two consecutive trading days on January 11 and 12, mainly due to the impact of short-term capital profit taking, the supply and demand fundamentals are still tightening, and the price will continue to go up after a short-term correction; With the tightening of raw materials, the price of cobalt may rise further. The quotation of MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 0.6% and 0.6% month on month respectively. The tax inclusive price of metal cobalt in China has reached 540000 yuan / ton; China’s metal cobalt, cobalt sulfate and cobalt trioxide rose by 1.2%, 0.5% and 0.6% respectively; The pattern of rare earth permanent magnet industry was reshaped. In the spot market, the quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China increased by 1.7% to 908000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The listing price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 816900 yuan / ton in China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) January, which was flat month on month. The goods preparation before the Spring Festival has been basically completed, the market activity has decreased, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium will remain stable next week. Indonesia plans to impose a tax on ferronickel exports, and the price has reached a new high in recent 10 years. Affected by the information on the proposed tax on ferronickel exports in Indonesia, the price of nickel has reached a new high in recent 10 years, and SHFE nickel closed at 164000 yuan / ton, up 8.59% month on month; On the supply side, Indonesia plans to levy a tax on ferronickel. The government may begin to levy a tax on the export of ferronickel and nickel pig iron in 2022. If the nickel price is more than 15000 US dollars / ton, a tax of 2% may be levied, and the tax will increase with the increase of nickel price. Previously, the Indonesian government has expressed the idea of Taxation for many times; On the demand side, the output of stainless steel crude steel in China in 021 was 33.664 million tons, an increase of 2.423 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 6.8%. For base metals, Powell’s unexpected dovish speech made the US dollar lower and commodities generally higher. At the hearing, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s remarks on monetary policy were milder than before, calmed market sentiment, and the inflation data in December did not exceed expectations, and the US dollar index fell somewhat; In terms of fundamentals, downstream pre holiday stock and low inventory support the price of base metals. Specifically, LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel rose or fell by 0.6%, 2.2%, 3.5%, – 0.1%, 1.1% and 7.0% respectively this week, and the price rose as a whole.
Building materials: some companies released performance forecasts this week. On the whole, the profitability of the glass fiber industry continues. Although the waterproof industry is affected by the rise in raw material prices, the operation of leading companies is more stable. We believe that in the short term, we should pay attention to the infrastructure chain and pay attention to companies whose performance forecasts exceed expectations; Investment opportunities for brand building materials and new materials were promising throughout the year. The expected bottom of the real estate corresponds to the bottom of the valuation of brand building materials (refer to the resumption in 2014 / 18). The performance repair is expected. The layout of brand building materials has high certainty. In the field of new materials, carbon fiber / high-purity quartz sand / electronic cover glass ushered in the industrial opportunity of high demand increase + domestic alternative resonance, and UTG welcomed the outbreak of demand. The glass fiber cycle weakened, the roving boom is expected to continue, and the price center of electronic cloth fell. Float glass price toughness still exists; The bottom of photovoltaic glass cycle may have price elasticity. Cement industry integration + extension; Water reducing agent opens up growth space for functional materials.
Chemical industry: 1) the leading value crosses the cycle and actively embraces the opportunities of new materials: affected by the economic cycle and the global spread of the epidemic, the traditional bulk products in the chemical industry are in a downward trend. As the main body of the chemical industry, the PPI of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry in December 2021 increased by 23.8% year-on-year, which was positive for 12 consecutive months.
In terms of downstream demand, from January to November 2021, the newly started area of houses decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, increased by 16.6% month on month in November, the construction area increased by 6.3% year-on-year from January to November, decreased by 13.5% month on month in November, and the completed area increased by 16.2% year-on-year from January to November; From January to November, China’s automobile production increased by 5.3% year-on-year and 11.28% month on month in November; From January to November, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, knitwear and textiles increased by 16.4% year-on-year, with strong demand. On the supply side, the fixed asset investment in the chemical industry continued to grow. From January to November, the fixed asset investment in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 16.6% year-on-year. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with excellent quality and core competitiveness: in the downward period of the cycle, the leading enterprises expand their advantages, and the valuation is obviously low, or cross the cycle, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with excellent quality and core competitiveness: in the downward period of the cycle, the leading enterprises expand their advantages, and the valuation is obviously low, or cross the cycle, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . With the improvement of health awareness, sugar substitutes have become the general trend of the times. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading food additives Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) in the business cycle. 2) New materials: actively embrace industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction. Scientific and technological progress promotes the innovation of terminal demand and drives the upgrading and development of high-end manufacturing industry. In this process, industrial innovation will put forward higher requirements for material properties and promote the rapid development of new material industry. It is suggested to focus on the subject of industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . In addition, it is recommended to focus on high-quality growth companies: Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206)
Risk warning event: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase. The economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Coal import impact risk. Macroeconomic fluctuation, import, environmental protection and other policy fluctuation risks, gold price fluctuation risks, new energy vehicle sales are lower than expected risks, and the premise assumptions of industry supply and demand calculation are lower than expected risks. Macroeconomic downside risks; The epidemic has led to lower than expected demand; Risk of relaxation of production restriction and new production capacity; Risk of poor capital turnover of 2B end enterprises. Macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
