The downturn of overseas US stocks is more due to the tightening effect caused by inflation. The spillover is transmitted to a shares, and the marginal effect is decreasing; Emotional bottom, performance blessing, scientific and technological growth, track reconstruction.
The macro environment faced by A-Shares in 22 years is better than that of major global indexes, or out of the independent market, and will not reproduce the path of negative feedback of 18 years of bear market. The stable growth style has a low performance ceiling, which needs constant stimulation from policy expectations. The game is too strong. With the ebb of funds, some funds choose to return to the main track of high growth. Before the Spring Festival holiday, the left layout of gaoboom track can be appropriate. With the disclosure of the annual report, growth stocks with better than expected performance are expected to get out of the independent rising market.
The upward slope of overseas interest rates slowed down, and the impact on the valuation of track stocks weakened. The most significant impact of overseas liquidity on A-Shares (especially track stocks) has basically ended, and growth stocks will return to the market dominated by fundamental expectations. The policy intensity of steady growth and the degree of monetary policy fulfillment will affect the performance of phased market style. Under the weaker than expected endogenous growth and the "me dominated" loose monetary policy, the growth market will only come late and will not be absent.
The compound g logic given by the high performance growth quantile of science and technology growth industry and industrial space has not changed, so we are not pessimistic about the layout market. The interest rate impulse factor at the valuation end has come to an end, and the risk at the valuation end has been significantly released. From the perspective of emotional transaction and turnover, the emotional off track has also appeared. From the perspective of boom diversion, it is difficult for the credit data in the first quarter to exceed expectations. Therefore, we believe that the only assessment standard for the left layout should fall on the performance side. At present, it has gradually entered the performance disclosure period. Once the market's concern about the performance miss of the high boom sector is falsified, it will still return to the main line. From the current performance forecast disclosure and the market's positive feedback on individual stocks whose performance exceeds expectations, There is no obvious performance miss in the high prosperity and scientific and technological growth sectors.
Recently, we believe that the most noteworthy new theme is the field of digital economy. The promulgation of the 14th five year plan for digital economy or directly drives the market of the sector, which falls on investment. We believe that digital infrastructure benefits from certainty, mainly including infrastructure investment such as IDC, Internet of things, 5g, Gigabit broadband and cloud computing, In particular, the target annual growth rate of Gigabit broadband quantization is more than 50%, which is the largest expected difference; In the field of underlying technology platform, artificial intelligence, blockchain, domestic software and industrial Internet platform are expected to benefit; At the application level, smart city, smart medicine, digital government and third-generation security are expected to benefit from digital transformation in the long term.
Risk tip: the counter cyclical policy is less than expected, and the epidemic situation is worse than expected.
