The epidemic is repeated at many points & the consumption data is uncertain, and the gold digging continues to underestimate the value & the target of high growth
In the past 21 years, the epidemic situation has been disturbed repeatedly, and the upgrading of prevention and control measures under the “zero clearing” policy system has significantly inhibited the repair of offline activities. The improvement of consumption capacity of low-income groups at the income end of residents is limited, and the power of consumption recovery throughout the year is weak. Since the beginning of the year, the national epidemic has shown a multi-point recurrence trend. With the Winter Olympic Games and the Spring Festival holidays approaching, it is expected that the consumer demand will still be restrained in the short term under the trend of strict epidemic prevention and control. At the macro level, under the background of consumption disturbance & market style transformation, we continue to recommend undervalued and high growth targets in various sectors.
At the current time point, it is suggested to focus on five main lines:
(1) agriculture: the overall decline of pig prices & the acceleration of production capacity deregulation, the layout of leaders to win “stability and happiness”, it is suggested to focus on Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .
(2) retail: the digital economy is strongly catalyzed by policies, and the jewelry sector has entered the deep-water area of reform. It is recommended that Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) , Huafu Fashion Co.Ltd(002042) , Weimeng group and Fubo group, as well as jewelry leaders Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) who actively grasp the industry aesthetic Awakening & jewelry trend reform.
(3) post real estate cycle: grasp the main line of steady growth, layout high-quality assets of home appliances and household appliances, recommend Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) with undervalued and improved operation, and Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) , the central air force leader benefiting from consumption upgrading and the increase of the proportion of hardbound houses.
(4) new consumption: Food Industrialization & e-cigarette racing track: high prosperity and strong attention α Bibcock, it is recommended to pay attention to Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Smallworld international, Warburg international, Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) .
(5) quality white horse: pay attention to high-end Baijiu with high cost performance, and HK’s leading apparel and beverage sector are basically good. Recently, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , which are callbacks of emotional impact, focus on XTEP international, which is enjoying the reform dividend.
Risk tip: repeated outbreaks outside China, less than expected capacity expansion, and intensified international trade frictions.
