The US dollar index fell, the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed, Ted interest rate spread widened, and China’s capital was relaxed first and then tightened. Last week (20220110-20220114), the US dollar index continued to fall. As of January 11, 2022, the net long position in the US dollar fell. The interest rate spread between China and the United States continues to narrow, and the nominal / real interest rates of US bonds rise, which implies the decline of inflation expectations. Overseas, Ted interest rate spread has widened, but it remains low, and the financial liquidity in the United States is still abundant; For China, the overall inter-bank capital was relaxed first and then tightened, the liquidity stratification was intensified, the term spread (10y-1y) continued to widen, and the credit spread narrowed as a whole. In terms of trading heat, the overall trading heat of the market has declined, and the trading heat of the pharmaceutical and steel sectors is at a relatively high level in history, and is still rising month on month; The volatility of media, steel and other sectors increased relatively greatly; In terms of research, electronics, nonferrous metals, food and beverage, banking, Dianxin, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and other sectors rank first.
The return range of northward allocation sector has been enlarged, but it has not stabilized, mainly buying new energy, financial real estate and some cyclical sectors. Last week (20220110-20220114), the northward allocation market bought a net 5.293 billion yuan and the northward trading market bought a net 2.361 billion yuan. On the day, both trading fluctuate greatly. In the industry, the differences between trading disk and configuration disk continue to expand. The consensus is to net buy banking, nonferrous metals, light industry, transportation and other industries, and net sell computers, consumer services, building materials and other industries. In terms of style, the configuration / trading sector net buys the large market value and medium market growth sector, and net sells the medium / small market value and small market growth sector, while there are differences in the large market growth sector. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation disk, the allocation disk net bought Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 820 million yuan and 79 million yuan respectively, and sold Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 1223 million yuan. In terms of market value, the allocation disk last week mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in the media, light industry, computer, commerce and retail, steel and other sectors.
The activity of the two financial institutions continued to decline, reaching a low since 2021. Last week (20220110-20220114), Liangrong sold a small amount of RMB 1.779 billion, mainly buying medicine, media, building materials, steel, construction and other sectors, and selling Dianxin, chemical industry, military industry, financial real estate, electronics and other sectors. The proportion of financing purchases in financial real estate, steel, communications, construction, building materials, petroleum and petrochemical, nonferrous metals and other sectors increased month on month, but the overall level is still at a historical low. In terms of style, Liangrong sold the market value sector slightly and net bought the other style sectors.
Public offering positions have increased, individual investors have made substantial subscription, and wide-based ETFs mainly held by institutions have been net subscription again. Last week (20220110-20220114), the A-share position of the active partial stock fund continued to rise. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased its position in food and beverage, electronics, household appliances, machinery, consumer services and other sectors, and mainly reduced its position in medicine, Dianxin, nonferrous metals, chemical industry and other sectors. Last week, ETFs mainly held by institutions were continuously net subscribed, and still dominated by broad-based; ETFs mainly held by individuals are continuously net subscribed, which means that individual investors may choose to continuously subscribe for funds. By industry, among ETFs mainly held by individuals, ETFs related to finance, real estate, consumption, science and technology, military industry, media and other sectors were mainly net subscribed, and ETFs related to medicine were net redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individuals) is to buy financial real estate, consumption, science and technology, military industry, media and other sectors, and sell the pharmaceutical sector at the same time. For trend traders, Liangrong expressed their preference for some sectors such as consumption and technology; Northward trading mainly bought banks, large consumption (medicine, food and beverage, household appliances) and new energy industry chain (nonferrous metals, chemical industry) and other sectors. On the whole, the overall divergence of the current market is still large, and all kinds of investors have relatively high purchase consensus in light industry, power and public utilities, media, transportation, food and beverage, household appliances and other industries. It is worth mentioning that the financial, real estate, power and some cycle sectors have gradually become the consensus sectors of northward allocation and public funds, and the two have great differences in science and technology, military industry, new energy and some consumption sectors, which means that the value sector is gradually returning to the combination of institutional investors, and the “new consensus” is gathering, The trading congestion of the above sectors is still relatively low. In addition, while Dianxin, nonferrous metals and other sectors are being sold by active partial stock funds and Liangrong, long-term funds represented by northward allocation are choosing to buy the above sectors.
Risk tip: measurement error.
