Event overview:
The Bureau of statistics released the data of social zero and real estate from January to December: 1) in terms of social zero, the growth rate of social zero, furniture, cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry and online social zero from January to December was + 12.5%, + 14.5%, + 18.8%, + 14.0%, + 29.8% and + 14.1% respectively year-on-year; Among them, the growth rate of social zero, furniture, cultural office supplies, cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry and online zero in December was + 1.7%, - 3.1%, + 7.4%, + 2.5%, - 0.2% and 0.8% respectively year-on-year. 2) In terms of real estate, from January to December, the newly started area, completed area, sales area and investment in real estate development in China were + 10.9%, + 10.8%, + 1.1% and + 6.4% respectively year-on-year; Among them, in December, the newly started area, completed area, sales area and investment in real estate development in China were - 33.1%, + 0.8%, 19.5% and - 11.9% respectively year-on-year.
Analysis and judgment:
Household: the completion data increased year-on-year, and the growth rate of household retail decreased.
Retail end: from January to December, residential completion, sales area and real estate development investment continued to grow. From January to December, the newly started area, completed area, sales area and investment in real estate development in China were + 10.9%, + 10.8%, + 1.1% and + 6.4% respectively year-on-year; Among them, in December alone, the newly started, completed, sales area of houses and the completed investment in real estate development were - 33.1%, + 0.8%, - 19.5% and - 11.9% respectively year-on-year. Affected by the debt pressure of real estate enterprises, cash flow pressure, credit risk and the tightening of the real estate market, the data of new real estate construction, sales and development investment in December decreased year-on-year, and the completion data increased year-on-year. The sales growth rate dropped significantly, mainly affected by the tightening of real estate regulation. The sales area of some leading real estate enterprises decreased significantly in a single month, and the purchasing power may gradually enter the accumulation period. It is expected that in the future, with the continuous tightening of real estate market regulation and the continuous effectiveness of real estate market regulation policies, the real estate marketing end will still face great adjustment pressure. From the perspective of furniture retail, the retail sales of furniture above the quota from January to December were + 14.5% year-on-year, of which the retail sales of furniture in December was - 3.1% year-on-year. Affected by the high base in the same period last year, the growth rate of furniture retail decreased.
Project side: according to ovicloud.com, from January to November 2021, the cumulative number of residential hardbound new opening projects / opening rooms was 3150 / 2594000 units respectively, a year-on-year increase of - 7.1% / - 11.7%. In November alone, there were 379 hardbound commercial housing opening projects, a year-on-year increase of + 21.1%; The number of opening rooms was 302000, a year-on-year increase of + 10.8%. In November 2021, the opening projects of hardbound commercial housing market were mainly distributed in East China and second tier cities, accounting for 36.6% and 56.9%. Nanjing, Chengdu and Suzhou became the top three cities in China in terms of opening scale in November. In the short term, although the scale of fine decoration in 2021 does not increase as expected with the tightening of the real estate market, the total scale is still expected to reach 3.12 million units; In the medium and long term, driven by various factors such as national policies, market environment and the new hardbound policy continuously launched by various regions, the fine decoration market will continue to rise, and the prospect is promising. It is estimated that the total scale will still be in a state of continuous growth in 2022, about 3.5-4 million units, and the penetration rate will further increase to about 40%. During 2023-2024, the proportion of fine decoration will exceed half. The sustainable development of hardbound housing market will also bring development opportunities for b-end business of household enterprises.
Cosmetics: retail sales increased year-on-year in December. From January to December, the retail sales of cosmetics increased by 14.0% year-on-year; Among them, the retail sales of cosmetics in December alone were + 2.5% year-on-year. With entering the peak consumption season, the growth rate of cosmetics consumption picked up. At present, China's cosmetics industry is still in a boom and upward development cycle. In the medium and long term, it will benefit from the dual release of consumer population and customer unit price, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) channels, the continuous release of upgraded consumer demand, and the cosmetics consumption will continue to grow.
Gold, silver and jewelry: retail sales decreased slightly year-on-year in December. From January to December, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by 29.8% year-on-year; Among them, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry in December alone were - 0.2% year-on-year. In December, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry decreased slightly year-on-year, but the growth rate of the total retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry in the whole year still ranked first among the main categories of the total retail sales of social consumer goods.
Cultural office supplies: the retail sales of cultural office supplies increased year-on-year in December. From January to December, the retail sales of cultural office supplies increased by + 18.8% year-on-year, and the cumulative growth rate basically remained stable; In December alone, the retail sales of cultural office supplies increased by + 7.4% year-on-year. China's cultural office supplies market is in a new situation of consumption upgrading. The consumption terminals of cultural office supplies are gradually showing changes such as chain characteristics, professional management, improvement of anti risk ability, improvement of profitability and so on.
Online retail: online retail continues to grow, making a significant contribution to the overall social zero. Online retail sales from January to December + 14.1% year-on-year; Among them, online retail sales in December were - 0.8% year-on-year. From January to December, online retail accounted for 29.7% of social zero, the same as that from January to November. The epidemic situation has been repeated, consumer behavior has gradually migrated online, and the zero pull of online channels on the overall society is still obvious.
Investment suggestions:
In terms of home furnishings, in the short term, the prices of raw materials continue to decline, and some companies have implemented price increases, which is expected to improve their profitability; In the medium and long term, with the release of demand for second-hand housing, improved housing and affordable housing, the industry will maintain steady growth, and the industry attribute will gradually shift from the post cyclical attribute of real estate to the attribute of consumption. Leading enterprises have outstanding advantages in brand, channel, product and production capacity, continue to seize the market share of small and medium-sized enterprises, and recommend Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Minhua holdings, Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ; In terms of cultural and entertainment supplies, the sunshine procurement policy drives the rapid development of the centralized purchase industry of office stationery. It is recommended that the retail end has Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) with channel moat, cultural and creative products to improve profitability, and the rapid development of new business kelipu and life Museum; In terms of cosmetics, benefiting from the "beauty economy", China's cosmetics industry maintains a high outlook and has great prospects for domestic products. It is expected to continue to increase its share through multi product, multi category and multi brand strategy. It is recommended that Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) .
Risk tips
The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply, the demand growth was less than expected, and the industry competition intensified.
