Main conclusions:
In combination with the spirit of the central economic work conference, the centralized commencement activities of major projects in Shanghai, the notice of the national development and Reform Commission on promoting consumption, the announcement of the people's Bank of China on open market business transactions, the bid winning interest rate of medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and open market reverse repurchase operation decreased by 10 basis points. We believe that we should not underestimate our determination to stabilize growth in policy.
First, the spirit of the central economic work conference. The central economic work conference pointed out that we must see that China's economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations; The 20th CPC National Congress will be held this year, which is a major event in the political life of the party and the state. We should maintain a stable and healthy economic environment, a social environment of national peace and public security, and a political environment of clean air; This year's economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. All regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy. All parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced.
Second, the centralized commencement activities of major projects in Shanghai. Last year, major projects in Shanghai were concentrated, with a total investment of 273.4 billion yuan. This year, major projects in Pudong New Area have been launched intensively, with a total investment of 317.6 billion yuan. It should be noted that this is only Pudong New Area.
Third, the notice of the national development and Reform Commission on promoting consumption belongs to the beginning of the year, which is relatively earlier, and the subject of policy implementation is relatively more clear. Comparing the relevant notices of the national development and Reform Commission on promoting consumption in 2020, 2021 and this year, we can find that this year's notice belongs to the beginning of the year and is relatively earlier, reflecting the spirit of the central economic work conference with stability at the head; In addition, in this notice, the receiving and Issuing Departments are the local development and reform commissions. The main body of policy implementation is relatively more clear, and the pace of implementation of consumption promotion measures may be relatively faster.
This year's notice of the national development and Reform Commission on doing a good job in promoting consumption in the near future (fgy [2022] No. 77) is received by the development and Reform Commission of all provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government and cities specifically designated in the state plan, and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps. The main body of the document is the national development and Reform Commission, and the document is issued on January 14, 2022. In 2021, the notice on printing and distributing the implementation plan for accelerating the cultivation of new consumption was sent to relevant departments and units of all provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government and cities specifically designated in the state plan, and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps. The main body of the document was the national development and Reform Commission, the central network information office, the Ministry of education, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of human resources and social security, the Ministry of natural resources The Ministry of housing and urban rural development and many other departments issued the document on March 22, 2021. In 2020, the notice on printing and distributing the work plan for expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption in the near future was received by: all provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government and cities specifically designated in the state plan, the development and Reform Commission of Xinjiang production and Construction Corps, the Department of Education (Education Commission and Education Bureau), the competent department of industry and information technology, the Department of Finance (bureau), the Department of housing and urban rural development (Commission), the competent department of Commerce Department of culture and tourism (bureau), health and Health Commission, emergency management department (bureau), Shanghai headquarters of the people's Bank of China, business management departments of all branches, central sub branches in provincial capitals (provincial capitals), central sub branches in sub provincial cities, market supervision bureau (Department and committee), Sports Bureau, medical insurance bureau and banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau. The main issuers are: National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of education The Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of culture and tourism and many other departments issued the document on October 14, 2020.
Fourth, the bid winning interest rates of medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and open market reverse repo operation of the people's Bank of China's open market business transaction announcement decreased by 10 basis points, which is the positive implementation of the "stability" of the spirit of the central economic work conference in monetary policy.
Risk tip: global economic slowdown; Covid-19 epidemic uncertainty.
