Key investment points:
In 2021, exports increased by 29.9% and imports increased by 30.1%
In US dollars, China's exports increased by 29.9% and imports by 30.1% in 2021. Due to the recovery of demand, rising prices and other factors, China's imports and exports continued to be strong last year. In December, the export was 20.9% year-on-year and the import was 19.5% year-on-year.
In December, the export remained high and the import growth rate fell, mainly due to:
In terms of export, due to the accelerated spread of overseas epidemic, the manufacturing expansion of major overseas economies slowed down in December, resulting in a slight drop in export growth; In terms of commodity categories, high-tech products support export growth;
In terms of import, the import growth rate of large raw materials such as iron ore decreased significantly, which was a drag on the import of trading partners such as Australia and BRICs countries.
High tech products support exports
(1) from the perspective of major exporting countries and regions, in December, China's export growth to the EU and BRICs fell significantly, its export growth to ASEAN and Japan fell slightly, and its export to the United States and Australia increased significantly.
(2) from the perspective of major export commodities, the export growth rate of high-tech products increased significantly in December, and the export growth rate of other products decreased, among which the export growth rate of traditional bulk commodities decreased significantly.
The growth rate of import of bulk raw materials fell
(1) from the perspective of major importing countries and regions, the import growth rate of ASEAN and EU increased in December; The import growth rate of other major trading partners fell, of which the import growth rate of Australia and BRICs countries fell by more than 10 percentage points.
(2) from the perspective of major imported commodities, the import growth rate of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products continued to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and bulk raw materials decreased significantly, and the two-year compound growth rate of bulk raw materials decreased by more than 5 percentage points.
Exports are expected to remain high in the short term
In terms of exports, overseas economies continued to recover and foreign demand continued to be strong. PMI's new export order index has rebounded continuously, and the shipping market remains in short supply. It is expected that China's exports will maintain a high growth rate in the first quarter of this year. Combined with the growth of overseas economies and the marginal change of export orders, observe whether exports weaken in subsequent months.
In terms of import, the fluctuation of China's import growth rate is closely related to bulk raw materials. Follow up attention will be paid to the impact of the decline in the price of industrial products and the boosting effect of China's steady growth on domestic demand.
Risk tips
Unexpected changes in overseas epidemics and international relations will bring unpredictable disturbances to trade.
