Be alert to the impact of the Fed's tightening expectations. The minutes of the December meeting of the Federal Reserve on January 6 show that the Federal Reserve is ready to take more active measures. This year, it may not only raise interest rates faster, but also shrink the table faster; However, in his speech last week, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that "after the opening of interest rate hike and table contraction, the US monetary policy will remain moderately loose rather than excessively tight causing economic recession.", At present, the key lies in the evolution path of US inflation. We need to pay attention to the results of the interest rate meeting in January. Looking back on the last round of interest rate hike cycle, in the game stage of interest rate hike expectation (first interest rate hike - interest rate hike landing), the expected strength of interest rate hike was accompanied by the strength of US dollar index, and the emerging market stock index, gold, crude oil and CRB composite index were adjusted (at least the rise and fall performance at the monthly level). US stocks fluctuated and US bond interest rates did not show an obvious upward trend. After the fact that the interest rate increase was implemented, the US bond interest rate trend rose, the US dollar index peaked and fell, the emerging market stock index and bulk commodities stabilized and rebounded, and gold did not adjust significantly.
China's "bottom of demand" is further verified, but the epidemic risk is also rising. Following the slowdown in the growth rate of land acquisition by developers in December, the leading indicator financial data in December 2021 continued to verify the logic of economic stabilization and recovery, recording an increase in speed for two consecutive months, of which the issuance of bonds by local governments was the main contribution, and continued to verify the logic of "bottom of demand". We expect that the real estate construction cycle will gradually stabilize and improve in the first quarter of this year. Considering the pre development force of infrastructure (about 500 billion new investment per month from January to March, while there was little special debt from January to March last year), as well as the dual width pattern of currency and finance in the first quarter, we believe that, Domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) can choose to bargain long. However, what needs to be vigilant at present is that the risk of epidemic situation in China is rising. As of January 15, this round of epidemic situation has spread in 10 places in 4 provinces and 1 city in China at the same time. With the superposition of Beijing Winter Olympic Games and Spring Festival transportation, this year's "Spring Festival on the spot" cannot be ruled out It is necessary to be vigilant against the downward risk of economic expectation caused by the adjustment of anti epidemic policy.
Generally speaking, under the background of monetary marginal loosening, we are relatively friendly to China's stock index. We continue to be optimistic about China's stock index in the first quarter of this year; The expected improvement of China's economy, especially the stabilization and recovery of real estate and infrastructure, is conducive to domestic demand industrial products with high correlation, but we need to pay attention to the epidemic risk in China in the short term; Industrial products with external demand are not yet clear. On the one hand, they face the risk of demand impact caused by overseas epidemic. On the other hand, there is still a gap between supply and demand of natural gas in Europe. Electricity prices still rely on natural gas supply in the short term, and the support brought by production reduction remains.
Strategy (strength ranking): bargain hunting and multi matching of the three major stock indexes (IH / if / IC); Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) can still be matched on bargain hunting; National debt, industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals) and neutral precious metals;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; China curbs commodity overheating; The game risk between China and the United States is rising; The situation in the Taiwan Strait.
