Ping An View:
Real economy: the number of newly diagnosed cases in China has rebounded, the low operating rate has warmed up, raw materials have accumulated, the margin of real estate sales has improved, land transactions are still depressed, and most of the spot prices of black goods have risen. 1) From Monday to Friday (January 10, 2022 to January 14, 2022), a total of 647 new cases were diagnosed in Henan, Tianjin, Shaanxi, Guangdong, Shanghai and Zhejiang, further spreading compared with 492 new cases in four provinces, autonomous regions and cities in the same period last week. According to the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council on January 15, the overall situation of the epidemic in China is stable, and the local aggregated epidemic in some areas can be effectively controlled in a short time. At present, the epidemic situation in Tianjin is still developing continuously, and the risk of epidemic overflow is gradually decreasing. There is still a certain risk of community transmission in Anyang, Henan, Zhuhai, Zhongshan and Shanghai. 2) The low industrial operating rate has warmed up. The operating rate of China's industrial production mostly rebounded this week, but it is generally lower than the level in the same period from 2019 to 2021. Among them, the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace was 54.8%, up 4 percentage points month on month; The operating rate of coking enterprises was 74.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over last week; The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plant was 32.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over last week. The operating rate of semi steel tires of automobile tires was 59.4%, a slight decline of 0.7 percentage points. 3) Raw material inventory accumulation. This week, the port iron ore inventory increased by 0.6% compared with last week; Coking coal inventory is available for 17.9 days, an increase of 0.95 days over last week. Among the finished products, the rebar factory warehouse + social warehouse increased by 3.7% compared with last week, and electrolytic aluminum continued to go to the warehouse. 4) Commercial housing sales pick up, and the land market is still depressed. This week, the average daily sales area of commercial houses in 30 cities was 459800 square meters, rising to the same level in 2019 and 2020, but still lower than that in early 2021. Last week, the land transaction area of Baicheng was 1906600 square meters, less than one tenth of the average level of 20.65 million square meters in the same period in recent three years. 5) Spot prices of black commodities mostly rose. Most of the spot prices of black commodities rose this week, mainly due to the lifting of Tangshan environmental protection warning, the gradual resumption of production of steel mills and the strong demand for replenishment of raw materials, which led to the recovery of coke and iron ore prices, and the spot prices of black commodities generally rose. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index rose 0.5% month on month, of which the wholesale prices of pork, vegetables and eggs fell 2.1%, 1.4% and 0.1% month on month respectively, and the wholesale prices of fruits were flat month on month.
Capital market: this week, the market's concern about "stagnation" intensified, and the expectation of monetary policy easing and overweight increased. Most of the major A-share indexes fell, while the gem index and Kechuang 50 index, which are sensitive to liquidity changes and small cap growth style, rose slightly; The yields of main term treasury bonds fell one after another, and the interest rate of ten-year Treasury bonds fell again to below 2.8%. Supported by the weakening US dollar index and the double surplus of balance of payments, the RMB exchange rate remains strong. In the money market, dr007 and R007 closed 2.34% and 2.21% respectively on Friday, up 21.3bp and 15.9bp respectively compared with last Friday. In the stock market, most of the main A-share indexes fell this week, the gem and the science and innovation board with small cap growth style rose slightly, and the SSE 50 index with large cap value style led the decline. In the bond market, the yield of main term treasury bonds fell, the interest rate of medium and short-term treasury bonds fell more, and the term interest spread widened. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index closed at 95.95 on Friday, down 0.6% from 95.74 on Friday. This week, the onshore RMB appreciated by 0.5% against the US dollar and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.4%.
Risk tip: steady growth is less than expected, the epidemic situation in China is spreading at multiple points, and geopolitical conflicts are escalating.
