Exports remained resilient throughout the year, the scale of foreign trade rose again, and the trade surplus increased significantly.
According to the data denominated in RMB, the total value of China's imports and exports in December was 3750.76 billion yuan, an increase of 20.90% year-on-year, of which exports reached 2177.72 billion yuan, an increase of 17.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the previous value; Imports reached 1.5734 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, down 10 percentage points from the previous value; The trade surplus was 604.69 billion yuan, an increase of 143.99 billion yuan over the previous month. In dollar terms, China's total import and export value in December increased by 20.30% year-on-year, down 5.8 percentage points from the previous month; Exports increased by 20.90% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month; Imports increased by 19.50% year-on-year, down 12.2 percentage points from the previous month; The trade surplus increased by US $22.749 billion over the previous month. In 2021, China's foreign trade reached a higher level, and the import and export scale reached US $6.05 trillion, breaking through US $6 trillion for the first time.
ASEAN remains the largest trading partner, and its share of trade volume with the EU rebounded slightly in December. By country, China's imports and exports to ASEAN in December totaled US $89.41 billion, accounting for 15.2%, maintaining China's position as the largest trading partner. Among them, exports increased by 12.0% and imports increased by 22.5% year-on-year. In December, the total import and export to the EU was USD 80.56 billion, accounting for 13.4%, the export increased by 25.6% year-on-year, the import decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the import growth rate turned negative again compared with November. In December, the total import and export volume to the United States was US $73.5 billion, accounting for 12.5%, and the export increased by 21.2% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate was 16 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the import increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 19 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. In the import and export volume structure of major trading partners, the proportion of the United States was the same as that in November, still 12.5%, the proportion of the EU increased slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 13.7%, and the proportion of ASEAN continued to rise to 15.2% in November. From the perspective of trade balance, Europe and the United States were still the main sources of China's trade surplus in December, but from the perspective of increment, the trade surplus of the United States, Europe and ASEAN in that month was higher than that in November. In 2021, China's trade balance reached US $676.43 billion, an increase of 29.09% over 2020, and its trade surplus with Europe and the United States increased by 74.24% and 25.25% respectively.
In 2021, China's traditional capacity advantage will continue to be maintained. Among the main export products, the products with high annual growth rate are still electromechanical products, cycle products and textile and clothing products. In terms of light industrial products, the growth rate of shoes and boots, lamps and bags were maintained at more than 30%. In terms of industrial semi-finished products, the cumulative growth rates of integrated circuits and liquid crystal display panels were 32.00% and 39.80% respectively. At present, mechanical and electrical products have become the largest foreign trade category in China, accounting for more than 35% of the annual trade volume, and the capacity advantage continues to highlight. In terms of cyclical products, the export volume of fertilizer, steel and aluminum also maintained the previous high growth rate, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 80.20%, 48.70% and 73.20% respectively. In terms of imported products, the varieties with high growth of import volume in 2021 are mainly Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and cyclical products.
The prices of export products performed strongly throughout the year, and the products with high price growth in foreign trade commodities were mainly cyclical products. In terms of export, the export prices of fertilizers, steel, aluminum and other commodities ranked first in 2021. In terms of imported products, in 2021, the import volume of iron ore and its concentrate, crude oil, refined oil (customs caliber) and steel increased, and the average import price of primary products such as grain, primary plastics and pulp also maintained a high growth rate during the year.
In 2021, the growth rate of China's export trade of processing and assembly with supplied materials reached 18.20%, and China's capacity advantage continued to highlight. We believe that the export growth rate will continue to maintain resilience in the first half of 2022. Import growth declined at the end of the year, reflecting to some extent that China's demand is weak and the need for steady growth is rising.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The impact of the global covid-19 epidemic has expanded.
