Key investment points:
Exports remained resilient and import growth slowed down. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in December 2021, the export was 20.9% year-on-year, the former value was 22.0%, the import was 19.5% year-on-year, the former value was 31.7%, and the trade surplus was 94.46 billion US dollars, the former value was 71.71 billion US dollars.
The export amount reached a new high. In December, the export value reached 340.5 billion U.S. dollars, reaching a record high, maintaining the scale of more than 300 billion U.S. dollars for four consecutive months, and the export toughness is still. In addition, there may also be the early spring festival in 2022, which is the factor that exports run ahead of schedule. In the second half of 2021, the export performance continued to exceed expectations, hitting a record high five times in six months, mainly due to the gap between overseas supply and demand and the general rise in prices in the second half of the year.
The global trade boom fell slightly, but it was not weak as a whole. South Korea’s export growth rate is usually used as an indicator to measure the global trade prosperity. In December, the year-on-year growth rate of South Korea’s export in the current month was 18.3%, the average growth rate in the two years was 15.3%, and the previous value was 17.1%. The performance is still relatively good. In addition, the demand of developed countries is also relatively strong. The manufacturing PMI of the United States and the euro zone fell in December, but it is still above 58%, which still drives exports.
Exports to the United States have increased. In the second half of the year, the trade relations between China and the United States continued to ease. In the first and second half of the year, the proportion of exports to the United States in total exports increased from 16.7% to 17.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points. In addition, the growth rate of exports to the United States in December rose to 21.21% from 5.27% last month. Although there is the impact of the decline of the base, the overall trend is upward from the monthly amount of exports to the United States in the second half of the year.
The export of high-tech products performed well. Integrated circuits still maintain a high growth rate of more than 20%, and the growth rate of electromechanical products is close to 20%, which forms a certain support for exports. In addition, high-tech products continue to have a high export growth rate, reflecting the upgrading of China’s industrial chain and the increase of exports of high value-added products. Epidemic prevention related supplies still maintain a relatively high growth rate, which may be related to the obvious rebound of overseas epidemic affected by virus strains. The growth rate of mobile phone export returned to high growth after the base dropped significantly. The monthly growth rate fluctuated greatly, but the overall trend of export amount in the second half of the year was upward. The export growth rate of household appliances in the downstream of the real estate continued to decline, and the export growth rate of furniture changed from positive to negative.
The import growth rate fell, and some products were significantly dragged down. The import amount in December was US $246 billion. Although the growth rate was significantly lower than that of the previous month, the absolute value was still at an all-time high, only lower than the record high of 253.8 billion yuan in November. In terms of specific products, the growth rate of import amount and quantity of crude oil, soybean, unwrought copper and copper products increased compared with the previous month; The obvious drag is iron ore and its concentrate, automobile and automobile chassis, and the growth rate of amount and quantity has turned negative. On the whole, the measures to stabilize growth in December have not yet fully come into effect, and the pull on domestic demand remains to be further observed.
On the whole, short-term overseas demand may still support exports, and new strains may still disturb the recovery of overseas supply. The absolute value of exports may still be high in 2022. However, due to the impact of rising base and overseas demand for goods may gradually shift to service consumption, the overall export growth rate may be in a downward trend, but the decline rate may be relatively slow. In 2022, it may be necessary to track domestic demand more closely. China’s measures to stabilize growth are gradually promoted, the drag on real estate is reduced, the growth rate of new and old infrastructure investment is expected to rise, and domestic demand may gradually improve. The driving effect of trade surplus on GDP may be relatively weakened in 2022.
